First projection of the šµš¹ legislative election:
The latest polls indicated a tie, so it looks really good for the PS, especially since am absolute majority in parliament is possible. It was a fairly distant possibility during the campaign.
The last time the PS got an absolute majority was in 2005, with 45% of the popular vote and 52% of seats in parliament.
It looks like the populist right Chega will become the 3rd political force in parliament.
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Portugal votes tomorrow. The decline in electoral turnout since the establishment of democracy has been spectacular {
In fact, Portugal has one of the lowest turnouts in legislative elections of all the countries in the CPDS dataset
One relevant factor for the 2019 elections is that electoral law changed and residents abroad (Portugal has a huge diaspora) are now automatically registered. The electorate abroad expanded from ca. 250'000 to 1.5 million between the 2015 and 2019 elections.
Three proxies of the Dutch bible belt (orthodox protestants) : 1. Geographical distribution of Orthodox calvinist schools 2. Measles outbreaks and measles vaccination coverage 3. Whether (male) amateur football matches are mostly played on Saturdays or on Sundays (via @SimonOtjes
Orthodox protestants have tended to resist vaccines because they believe that they interfere with the will of God. They also oppose working on Sundays. The website of the Orthodox Protestant party SGP is offline on Sundays.
A political economy thread on why the Netherlands has become the main entry point for South American cocaine into Europe.
33 tons of cocaine were seized in the port of Rotterdam in 2019. Last year cocaine amounts with a street value of 5 BILLION EUR were seized. How has it come to this? Let's go to 1980s Colombia. nltimes.nl/2019/11/11/cocā¦
At first, Colombian drug traffickers would channel cocaine into Miami via the Caribbean, using boats or planes flown by people like Barry Seal (there is a movie about him). But then, the amount of product that could be circulated was limited. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Seal