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alexandre afonso

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Jan 31 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

A map of the Chega vote in yesterday's 🇵🇹 election, by parish (freguesia).

And here a map of the vote for Iniciativa Liberal.

A map of parishes won by the socialists and the PSD

A map of the Communist vote (waning), but still concentrated in its Southern stronghold of Alentejo.

Here I had put together a few things on the historical origins of this geographical concentration.

https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1181292177130999808?s=20&t=_ZtjONt9Olvo7moRrnbkdQ

Iniciativa Liberal (a market-liberal party) does well along the coast, which is richer. You can see an interesting relationship between its 2022 vote share and house prices.

But it could be an artefact of population density. Would need to analyse this.

@LIVREpt

A map of votes for @LIVREpt @ruitavares #Eleicoes2022

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More from @alexandreafonso

alexandre afonso

@alexandreafonso

Jan 31

This is what happens when you report on Portugal from New York.

Or from Madrid in this case I think.

Wonder what happened here. Probably filing deadline before the final results were in (absolute majority was unlikely indeed).

Read 4 tweets

alexandre afonso

@alexandreafonso

Jan 30

First projection of the 🇵🇹 legislative election:

The latest polls indicated a tie, so it looks really good for the PS, especially since am absolute majority in parliament is possible. It was a fairly distant possibility during the campaign.

The last time the PS got an absolute majority was in 2005, with 45% of the popular vote and 52% of seats in parliament.

Read 4 tweets

alexandre afonso

@alexandreafonso

Jan 29

Portugal votes tomorrow. The decline in electoral turnout since the establishment of democracy has been spectacular {

In fact, Portugal has one of the lowest turnouts in legislative elections of all the countries in the CPDS dataset

One relevant factor for the 2019 elections is that electoral law changed and residents abroad (Portugal has a huge diaspora) are now automatically registered. The electorate abroad expanded from ca. 250'000 to 1.5 million between the 2015 and 2019 elections.

Read 8 tweets

alexandre afonso

@alexandreafonso

Jan 27

@SimonOtjes

Three proxies of the Dutch bible belt (orthodox protestants) :
1. Geographical distribution of Orthodox calvinist schools
2. Measles outbreaks and measles vaccination coverage
3. Whether (male) amateur football matches are mostly played on Saturdays or on Sundays (via @SimonOtjes

Source of the schools and measles map: link.springer.com/article/10.114…

Orthodox protestants have tended to resist vaccines because they believe that they interfere with the will of God. They also oppose working on Sundays. The website of the Orthodox Protestant party SGP is offline on Sundays.

Read 5 tweets

alexandre afonso

@alexandreafonso

Jan 26

A political economy thread on why the Netherlands has become the main entry point for South American cocaine into Europe.

33 tons of cocaine were seized in the port of Rotterdam in 2019. Last year cocaine amounts with a street value of 5 BILLION EUR were seized. How has it come to this? Let's go to 1980s Colombia.
nltimes.nl/2019/11/11/coc…

At first, Colombian drug traffickers would channel cocaine into Miami via the Caribbean, using boats or planes flown by people like Barry Seal (there is a movie about him). But then, the amount of product that could be circulated was limited. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Seal

Read 32 tweets