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Jan 31 13 tweets 2 min read
1. Old thoughts rehashed : Fundamentally, In my experience since 1991 , every Peak of Bull Market, barring 1992, is accompanied by the best of Corporate Results, Fund flows, Govt policies etc, yet when the last bear meets the last bull then the market reverses.
2.Have been pointing out that the market has cyclical pattern , have also pointed out that the recent rise was a BULL TRAP.
3. Where are we ?
4.We have seen these patterns in 2004, 2010-11; 2015-16 and now most likely.
5.Have shared this statistics elsewhere. The TOP 10 stocks of Nifty contribute 60 % to Nifty
6. At the Bottom of Dec 20th when Nifty hit 16400 , when it was down by 12 % & the BN was 19% ( just short of a bear mkt laxman rekha ) just 1 stock was positive
7.Kotak ; HUL were 23 % off ATH, while ITC was 20 %, HDFC Twins b/w 17-18; ICICI Bank : 19 %; Reliance 18 % TCS 15 % all fell more than Nifty
8. In many other categories like Metals, PSEs , Chemicals many popular stocks were crushed much more Yet, there was no hue & cry about a Bear Market since there was no discernible BAD NEWS
9.What this means is LIQUIDITY trumps FUNDAMENTALS every single time
10.The PAIN is NOT in the INDICES
11.LIC is planning to raise 75k Crores through its IPO. That's almost 60 % of the total value of money raised through IPOs last year (Rs. 1.18 Lakh crores) which itself was an all time record.
12.With Global CBs turning off the tap of liquidity in March & RBI also having already done so, will there not be ENORMOUS STRAIN on liquidity, esp March is the month where everyone is scrambling for liquidity?. Think Please Think .
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More from @sainik636

Sep 12, 2021
@Jai_hyderabad @vka27 . A thread on Health & Sport. "If I can do it, anyone can do it ". Just like the Stock Markets. Running a Marathon requires the same kind of skill sets as Investing in the Stock Market. Here I am just describing my Running Experience (1/n)
2. In early 2015, when I was around 54 years, the running bug bit me when I saw a friend of mine running on the Marina Beach. He introduced me to Marina Minnals one of the many running groups which are based out of Chennai.
3. In College I was into Sports, mainly short sprints having represented college in various Inter-Collegiate Meets, but anything above 400 m was Hell for me. In 2015 my Running group friends helped me to navigate Hell.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 6, 2021
1.“The Dog that Didn’t Bark”
Gregory: “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”
Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.”
Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.”
Holmes: “That was the curious incident.”
2.Since 2008, when FED started its QE there was a fear that the wall of Liquidity would lead to very high Inflation, bordering on Hyperinflation.
However, that did not happen flummoxed the best of the minds.
3. In the last one year due to COVID the concept of “HELICOPTER MONEY’ which was touted by Bernanke in the early 2000’s as one solution to take care of low growth. So how is Helicopter Money different from Quantitative Easing?.
Read 21 tweets
Sep 5, 2021
1. MY BIGGEST REGRET : Recently on a CH session, a guy asked me whether I regretted my decision to accumulate Dec Put options in end July when Nifty was around 16k. My reply : I never regret my actions made after a great amount of study so long as only I lose money.
2. Regret happens when others take my advice & lose money or don't make money. However in the past have regretted since others took my advice & lost an opportunity.
3. July 2013. Had identified a stock after a great deal of Research, which then was the most hated. Had traded a long time b/w Rs.21-24 & rapidly fell to Rs.18 when it caught my attention. Immediately alerted everyone I knew that it was a bargain for LT. Most believed me & acted.
Read 11 tweets
Sep 3, 2021
1. Time to validate what this 91 year old gentleman says :
2. My good friend @Prashanth_Krish supplied me this data on MF flows in the past
3. This I picked from Mint :
Read 6 tweets
Sep 1, 2021
1. ONE LONE VOICE ...... Q: If a tree falls in a forest, and there’s no one around to hear it, does it make a sound?🙄 Another "rant" in 10 parts.
2. Yesterday, I ranted through 25 Tweets on the current market conditions. Going by the response, the above question assumes relevance. Adding another edition today in the fond hope that some of you may find meaning in what I tried/trying to convey.
3.Had made my observations of the market here on WhatsApp & CH discussions that while its futile to "Catch a top" in terms of Numbers, it may be still a good idea to "time" the market in terms of ... well "Time"
Read 12 tweets
Aug 27, 2021
1.The MF Mafia's Motto : Mutual Fund Sahi Hain
2. MFs have convinced its target Audience through constantly repeating that they don't have KNOWLEDGE ; TIME, EXPERTISE & EXPERIENCE .
3. KNOWLEDGE : The typical target is a well educated, successful individual who is trying to explore alternative Investment Avenues other than traditional Bank FDs. He/she has investible surplus & has the capability of seeking knowledge easily during these times. Google, anyone ?
Read 27 tweets

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