1x $PTON has been hit hard. Is it a buy or not?
@onepeloton is trading about where it IPO’d ~$27/share
In late 2019, it was a $9B market cap on $0.4B revenue for a ~22x revenue multiple
Now it is $9B market cap on $4B of revenue or 2.2x
That's cheap for a #CategoryCreator
@onepeloton is trading about where it IPO’d ~$27/share
In late 2019, it was a $9B market cap on $0.4B revenue for a ~22x revenue multiple
Now it is $9B market cap on $4B of revenue or 2.2x
That's cheap for a #CategoryCreator
2x But is $PTON is a #categorycreator?
#Categorycreator are valued at 5-10x revenue
per our @categorypirates analysis of @Fortune100 fastest growing
You can read about it here, in our #categorydesignscorecard, which I will apply in this 🧵
categorypirates.substack.com/p/the-category…
#Categorycreator are valued at 5-10x revenue
per our @categorypirates analysis of @Fortune100 fastest growing
You can read about it here, in our #categorydesignscorecard, which I will apply in this 🧵
categorypirates.substack.com/p/the-category…
3x Let’s use the scorecard
Category POV/Problem: Their mission is to use tech/design to connect the world through fitness, empowering people to be the best version of themselves anywhere, anytime
They have a great solution, but they haven’t articulated the problem
Category POV/Problem: Their mission is to use tech/design to connect the world through fitness, empowering people to be the best version of themselves anywhere, anytime
They have a great solution, but they haven’t articulated the problem
Most people who spend money on fitness don’t get fit
Einstein reminds us to spend 55 minutes on the problem and 5 min on the solution
@lochhead and @nicolascole77 tell us to fall in love the with problem.
$PTON needs to do the same. Score = 1
Einstein reminds us to spend 55 minutes on the problem and 5 min on the solution
@lochhead and @nicolascole77 tell us to fall in love the with problem.
$PTON needs to do the same. Score = 1
4x Has $PTON reimagined the future category?
They paint a clear picture of the future with bikes, treadmills, apps & instructors
They talk about 100MM subscribers, but they should be talking about 1B pounds of weight lost
Or some other great outcome. Until they do, Score = 1
They paint a clear picture of the future with bikes, treadmills, apps & instructors
They talk about 100MM subscribers, but they should be talking about 1B pounds of weight lost
Or some other great outcome. Until they do, Score = 1
5x Does $PTON have a radically different business model?
Absolutely yes. I love my $PTON bike. The app is amazing and I love it.
Their NPS and stickiness says it all
Score = 2
Absolutely yes. I love my $PTON bike. The app is amazing and I love it.
Their NPS and stickiness says it all
Score = 2
6x Does $PTON have a powerful dataflywheel that predicts the future?
The question is are they using it well to predict future demand?
If they were, they wouldn’t have had to stop production
Score = 1
The question is are they using it well to predict future demand?
If they were, they wouldn’t have had to stop production
Score = 1
7x What is the depth & degree of customer outcomes?
This is the big problem for $PTON
@onepeloton spends much more time talking about their $ outcomes vs end users outcomes
Are they radically generous? Yes. The app is abundant & awesome. But it feels too mercenary
Score = 1
This is the big problem for $PTON
@onepeloton spends much more time talking about their $ outcomes vs end users outcomes
Are they radically generous? Yes. The app is abundant & awesome. But it feels too mercenary
Score = 1
8x So is $PTON a Category Queen?
Score = 6. This barely makes the “Be Different” scorecard!
That is great, but just a dash of #categorydesign & an improved investor narrative would go a long way
They need to add 'missionary' measures they are laser focused on
Score = 6. This barely makes the “Be Different” scorecard!
That is great, but just a dash of #categorydesign & an improved investor narrative would go a long way
They need to add 'missionary' measures they are laser focused on
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