Saw some head-scratching data? 🤔

Understanding the Base Rate Fallacy can help you avoid jumping to the wrong conclusions. 👇

🧵[1/6]

#ScienceUpFirst Are you getting the full picture? A chart shows how COVID-19
How we communicate data influences how others will perceive it.

And let’s just say some graphs are better than others 👀

🧵[2/6]

#ScienceUpFirst People send us this graph A LOT as "proof" that va
For example, the pie chart above only gives raw hospitalization numbers, but does not give the base rate data (i.e. the number of people vaccinated in the whole population).

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#ScienceUpFirst
When the data is appropriately adjusted for population and age, it’s clear that 2 doses of the vaccine make you WAY less likely to be hospitalized.

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#ScienceUpFirst 2 doses of the vaccine means you are 5x less likely to be ho
Want some more examples of the Base Rate Fallacy? Sarah Treit, PhD (@ figures.first on IG) has a great breakdown using B.C. data: instagram.com/p/CZADDNCJ6ee/

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#ScienceUpFirst The base rate fallacy can lead us to some inaccurate conclus
Questions about COVID-19 data?

Send us a DM or leave a reply below!

🧵[6/6]

#ScienceUpFirst

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More from @ScienceUpFirst

Feb 1
Got Omicron? You are not alone!

See our thread on what we know so far 👇

🧵 [1/11]

#ScienceUpFirst “I got Omicron, what’s next...
Can I get infected with Omicron again?

Anecdotal reports find reinfections happening weeks apart. Experts expect it is possible to catch Omicron more than once. Scientists are currently assessing how often reinfections occur and who is at most risk.

🧵 [2/11]

#ScienceUpFirst
Though the relationship is not clearcut, several factors may influence reinfection:

How many exposures you have had (via vaccine 💉 or infection 🦠)

How recent your exposures are 📅

The severity of those exposures 🤒

If you're immunocompromised

🧵 [3/11]

#ScienceUpFirst
Read 11 tweets
Jan 14
“Should I get Omicron and just get it over with?”

NOPE! 🙅‍♀️

We’ve heard this line of thinking from our friends and family. But we’re here to tell you that getting COVID-19 isn’t inevitable and now isn’t the time to throw our hands in the air.

🧵 [1/7]

#ScienceUpFirst Don't give up! COVID may feel inevitable, but don't rush out
Omicron spreads very easily, and hospitalizations are climbing.

Between Jan 3 and Jan 10, COVID-19 hospitalizations in Canada jumped from 4,113 to 6,926 and 290 more COVID-19 patients were admitted to an ICU (2).

🧵 [2/7]

#ScienceUpFirst A graph showing number of patients hospitalized across the m
We get that talking about “flattening the curve” gives serious 2020 déjà vu. 😵‍💫

But it’s truly what we need to do! Healthcare workers are dealing with record case numbers while severely short staffed (3, 4). Slowing the spread matters.

🧵 [3/7]

#ScienceUpFirst
Read 7 tweets
Jan 14
Don’t underestimate “mild” - COVID-19 isn’t a chicken wing 🍗

There’s confusion around the severity of Omicron, let’s get into it 👇

🧵 [1/6]

#ScienceUpFirst Is Omicron “Mild”?  ICUs filling up with COVID patients
Good news: there is evidence of less lung damage (1,2,3); and lower rates of hospitalization and death (4).

But, what’s mild for one can be severe for others. Plus, the number of Long COVID cases related to Omicron are not yet captured.

🧵 [2/6]

#ScienceUpFirst
The bad news: Omicron is more transmissible than all previous variants (5).

In Canada, we’ve seen the highest number of cases reported so far in the pandemic (and with limited testing, these are an underestimate) (6).

🧵 [3/6]

#ScienceUpFirst
Read 6 tweets
Jan 12
Thanks to committed scientists around the world, we have learned a lot about #Omicron.

Here’s what we know* now; the good news and the bad news.👇

*A lot of this research is still pre-print - things may change

🧵 [1/10]

#ScienceUpFirst OMICRON  What we know now; ...
The Omicron variant of COVID-19 has A LOT of mutations.

It’s got at least 36 mutations around the spike protein (which is the target of our vaccines)

🧵 [2/10]

#ScienceUpFirst
Omicron is more transmissible

- 2.6 to 3.7X more than Delta in vaccinated individuals (2).

- Shorter incubation period (3 days) than the OG strain (3, 4).

- Replicates 70x more than Delta in bronchus tissue (5). Could mean more virus shedding.

🧵 [3/10]

#ScienceUpFirst
Read 10 tweets
Dec 7, 2021
We’re here to set the record straight on spike proteins.

Here’s why the spike proteins generated via the vaccine are safe, activate an effective immune response, and are *not the same* as the spike on the virus.

🧵[1/13]

#ScienceUpFirst Misinformation continues to spread about spike proteins. Let
First, a little Spike Protein 101

Spike proteins live on the surface of SARS-CoV-2

The virus infects human cells by binding to receptors. Once attached, the spike protein changes shape, letting the virus infiltrate our cells.



🧵[2/13]

#ScienceUpFirst
But mRNA vaccines teach our body to make a *modified spike protein*

- This triggers an immune response that teaches our bodies to protect against real SARS-CoV-2 infection.

🧵[3/13]

#ScienceUpFirst
Read 13 tweets
Nov 19, 2021
What are the differences between the vaccine for people 12+ and the vaccine for those 5-11?

Check out our quick guide!

🧵 [1/8]

#ScienceUpFirst Comparing the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines  Adult vaccine, for p
Both vaccines are safe and effective. ✅💉

Both use mRNA as the active ingredient. ✅💉

What’s different?

🧵 [2/8]

#ScienceUpFirst
The colour of the vial cap is different. 👀

- 12+ vial has a purple cap 🟣

- 5-11 vial has an orange cap 🟠

🧵 [3/8]

#ScienceUpFirst
Read 8 tweets

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