FDR ↔ Reagan (cycle begins)
Truman ↔ Bush I (lame successor)
Eisenhower ↔ Clinton (party switch-off, "good times")
LBJ ↔ Bush II / Obama (overextension & decline)
Nixon ↔ Trump (reaction from the middle)
Carter ↔ Biden (malaise / cycle ends)
Truman ↔ Bush I (lame successor)
Eisenhower ↔ Clinton (party switch-off, "good times")
LBJ ↔ Bush II / Obama (overextension & decline)
Nixon ↔ Trump (reaction from the middle)
Carter ↔ Biden (malaise / cycle ends)
https://twitter.com/parasociality/status/1488346591299788801
Presidents are greatly overrated. In my view, they are more symptoms of history than causes.
The Weathervane in Chief.
But a weathervane is exactly what you need if you want to understand which way the wind is blowing.
The Weathervane in Chief.
But a weathervane is exactly what you need if you want to understand which way the wind is blowing.
FDR ↔ Reagan
A peak defines the new cycle.
Victory in WWII + atom bomb
End of the Cold War
The men identified with these peaks are widely popular. Mandate elections ('36, '84), cults of personality.
A peak defines the new cycle.
Victory in WWII + atom bomb
End of the Cold War
The men identified with these peaks are widely popular. Mandate elections ('36, '84), cults of personality.
Truman ↔ Bush I
Neither "great man" actually achieves the peak. This technically happens under their successor, uncharismatic men who get into office on the big guy's coattails.
These guys are lame sequels.
Neither "great man" actually achieves the peak. This technically happens under their successor, uncharismatic men who get into office on the big guy's coattails.
These guys are lame sequels.
Eisenhower ↔ Clinton
The US bipartisan system is robust. Time to switch.
Outsider candidates lead the weaker party in from the wilderness. These guys are popular in office, but they tend to be forgotten quickly. They don't leave much impression on the zeitgeist.
Coasting.
The US bipartisan system is robust. Time to switch.
Outsider candidates lead the weaker party in from the wilderness. These guys are popular in office, but they tend to be forgotten quickly. They don't leave much impression on the zeitgeist.
Coasting.
LBJ ↔ Bush II / Obama
Domestic crisis (Civil Rights, Great Awokening)
Foreign overextension (Vietnam, War on Terror)
The wheels are coming off the bus. The cycle is now in decline.
Domestic crisis (Civil Rights, Great Awokening)
Foreign overextension (Vietnam, War on Terror)
The wheels are coming off the bus. The cycle is now in decline.
Nixon ↔ Trump
Middle American reaction to the crisis in the form of a nominally anti-elite populist. "Silent Majority."
Deeply unpopular with establishment ("I can’t believe Nixon won. I don’t know anyone who voted for him."), forced out via what may have been a dirty trick.
Middle American reaction to the crisis in the form of a nominally anti-elite populist. "Silent Majority."
Deeply unpopular with establishment ("I can’t believe Nixon won. I don’t know anyone who voted for him."), forced out via what may have been a dirty trick.
Carter ↔ Biden
Economic and cultural malaise (which began under the populist predecessor) hits the average American sharply. An observer from the previous decade might be forgiven for thinking he's in a dystopia.
1970s energy crisis + gas rationing
2020s covid
Economic and cultural malaise (which began under the populist predecessor) hits the average American sharply. An observer from the previous decade might be forgiven for thinking he's in a dystopia.
1970s energy crisis + gas rationing
2020s covid
The cycle is recognizable (if messier) in earlier iterations.
I'd peg earlier cycle "start points" at:
Wilson
Cleveland
Lincoln
I'd peg earlier cycle "start points" at:
Wilson
Cleveland
Lincoln
In most cases, the leader at the start of the cycle (FDR, Reagan, who's next?) came from the most prominent state.
FDR - New York (largest state in 1930)
Reagan - California (largest state in 1980)
Personally, I'd keep an eye on Florida (and the Sun Belt broadly)
FDR - New York (largest state in 1930)
Reagan - California (largest state in 1980)
Personally, I'd keep an eye on Florida (and the Sun Belt broadly)
Another comparison:
JFK ↔ 9/11
Visually arresting tragedy precipitating decline phase of cycle.
JFK ↔ 9/11
Visually arresting tragedy precipitating decline phase of cycle.
This feels like more of a stretch, but:
Moon landing ↔ killing of Bin Laden
A propaganda coup about 10 years after the precipitating tragedy that's sort of a salve to that tragedy ("JFK said we'd land a man on the moon🥲" "Yeah, we finally got that bastard!").
Moon landing ↔ killing of Bin Laden
A propaganda coup about 10 years after the precipitating tragedy that's sort of a salve to that tragedy ("JFK said we'd land a man on the moon🥲" "Yeah, we finally got that bastard!").
The "Tragedy-Triumph Quartet":
JFK ↔ 9/11
Moon landing ↔ killing of Bin Laden
All became the subject of intense speculation that they were stage-managed.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._K…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9/11_cons…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_land…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osama_bin…
JFK ↔ 9/11
Moon landing ↔ killing of Bin Laden
All became the subject of intense speculation that they were stage-managed.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._K…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9/11_cons…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_land…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osama_bin…
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