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Feb 2 • 11 tweets • 6 min read
In a worrying development, we and other researchers have observed vehicles characteristic of Russia's National Guard Troops and possibly riot police (both part of the same umbrella organization "Rosgvardia") moving on roads and trains across European Russia.
This video, likely filmed in Konosha, south of Arkhangelsk, shows a train with BTR-80 APCs, Ural-VV and Zvezda-V armored trucks and a Rosgvardia Traffic Police vehicle.

Railcar tracking data suggests the train is going south from Arkhangelsk.
In another video, filmed in Tula, you can see another Zvezda-V armored truck and several gray trucks with red stripes and grated windows, intended to transport personnel and detainees, which you may remember from videos of protests in Russia.
The latter vehicles, colloquially known as "Avtozak" ["Convict (transporter) vehicle"], are also seen on a train in a video, geolocated by @danvan71 to Petrozavodsk, Karelia.
@danvan71 Other evidence of Rosgvardia deployment includes a report from a local TV station in Siberia that said 130 National Guardsmen were being transported by Il-76 cargo plane towards Ukraine.
tv2.today/News/Istocnik-…

Another Rosgvardia Il-76 was recently spotted flying towards Crimea.
@danvan71 As of yet, there is no evidence of Rosgvardia personnel deployed in camps or towns close to the Ukrainian border.

But this redeployment is highly unusual for Rosgvardia — last time was in 2020 as a reserve for the Belarusian regime against protests there.
Note that in 2020 number plates were removed from the vehicles sent towards Belarus — just like now.

In a major offensive into Ukraine, National Guardsmen could be used for occupation and counterinsurgency, as they have had similar experience in Syria.

rosguard.gov.ru/ru/page/index/…
This new development is just one of the growing concerns as Russian military continues concentration near Ukraine's borders and in Crimea.



We will keep on monitoring the situation closely.
Upd: Yet another video has emerged showing National Guard Troops vehicles (BTR-80, "Federal" armored trucks).

We geolocated it to Livny, Orel region, 215 km from Ukraine, heading west.

(h/t @RALee85)

There is a Special Motorized Regiment of the National Guard (Rosgvardia) based in Lipetsk, east of Livny.

Note that unlike previous videos, the number plates are present on the vehicles, although many are partially obscured.
See this thread for further. even more worrying developments:

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More from @CITeam_en

CIT (en) Profile picture
Jan 17
Today @MotolkoHelp posted photographs and a video of a train carrying Russian military vehicles, reportedly filmed near Minsk, Belarus.

According to railcar trackers, the train comes from Ruzhino station in Russia's Far East.



@MotolkoHelp The closest unit to Ruzhino station is 16th Radiation, Biological and Chemical Defence Brigade of the Eastern Military District based in Lesozavodsk.

One of the vehicles seen on the train matches an RHM-6 Chemical Reconnaissance Vehicle.
@MotolkoHelp In a recent comment on TikTok, a woman writes that her soldier son recently left Lesozavodsk with his unit's vehicles, having signed a "paper" (possibly a none-disclosure agreement).

Many other comments left by soldiers and their acquaintances mention deployment to Belarus.
Read 4 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Jan 15
Recently we and other researchers have observed videos with what we believe are launchers and other vehicles of Iskander-M operational and tactical missile systems, moving west on trains across Russia, some as far west as the Urals. ImageImageImage
Railcar tracking data tells us that trains carrying Iskander-M elements originate from at least two points: Ulan-Ude and Birobidzhan, close to the bases of Iskander-armed 103rd and 107th Missile Brigades, respectively.

TikTok comments also mention 107th Brigade on the move. Image
Iskander-M brigades are army-level assets, which suggests that the westward movements from all four armies the Western Military District that we have observed earlier involve significant elements of those armies, not just separate battalion tactical groups
Read 6 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Jan 12
In the past week, we and other researchers have noticed videos on social media showing military vehicles on trains in Russia's Far East, moving West.

Trucks, tanks IFVs and MLRS can be seen on the flatbed railcars. Eyewitnesses report several trains per week or even per day.
Russia's security services take steps to hide those trains from open databases, but indirect data points to departure from the bases of all four armies of Russia's Eastern Military District.

Some trains are already seen further west than the EMD, suggesting unusual redeployment.
Given that Russia's paratroopers are soon to leave Kazakhstan, the only other likely destination is near Ukraine, where they'd join other Russian units already there.

Videos filmed from the trains themselves suggest at least some personnel is moving with the vehicles.
Read 5 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Apr 22, 2021
1/
Today @mod_russia's Sergei Shoigu gave an order to pull troops amassed around Ukraine back to their bases.

Here's why it is too early to stop worrying (yet)

tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…
2/ First, the order states that the equipment of the 41st army (which includes tanks and heavy MLRS), transferred from Siberia, is to remain in a camp south of Voronezh until Zapad-2021 strategic military exercises which aren't due till September.

3/
 With the vehicles already in place, transferring just the personnel back to Voronezh would take days, not weeks.

It also should be noted that the order states the pullout will complete as early as May 1, while the initial deployment took nearly a month.
Read 5 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Apr 21, 2021
1/
In yet another TikTok video of a military train, researchers spotted a Kasta-2-2 radar station. We checked the carriage ID in a railcar tracker and found out the train was going to Crimea from Chita in the Russian Far East.
2/
The train was going to Aivazovskaya station in Crimea which we earlier noted as an unloading site for trains carrying elements of the 58th army from North Caucasus, which presumably ended up at a training ground in eastern Crimea.
3/
 Kasta radars are known to be used by radiotechnical regiments attached to anti-air divisions and air bases.

The only unit like this in the area is the 342nd Radiotechnical Regiment.

This is the first unit of Eastern Military District we've seen going to Crimea.
Read 4 tweets
CIT (en) Profile picture
Apr 18, 2021
1/
@derspiegel has obtained satellite images of aRussian military camp at a training ground in east Crimea, some 280 km by road from Ukraine-controlled territory.

We believe it shows elements of the 58th Army, recently transferred from North Caucasus.
spiegel.de/politik/auslan… Image
2/
As we and other researchers have noted, units from the 58th Army (known for the 2008 Russia-Georgia war) have been arriving to Crimea, including the 291st Artillery and the 136th Motorized brigades.



3/
Note that the unloading areas for military vehicle trains all point to east Crimea, same as videos filmed on the eastern part of the E97 ("Tavrida") highway.

This suggests that the 58th army units were indeed going into the recently discovered camp. Image
Read 6 tweets

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