More from @danielgoyal

Dr Dan Goyal

@danielgoyal

Feb 4

1/ The “Omicron is mild narrative” is simply untrue and hugely harmful!

Scientists, doctors, experts and everyone else need to take responsibility for the harm done when minimising Covid - death and disability.

Thread 🧵

2/ There is no doubt that in the absence of boosters Omicron is a brutal infection for a significant number of people.

Still, for the majority it will pass without the need for medical care and recovery will be relatively uneventful. But some will have life-changing illness….

3/ There is no way of predicting who will get severe disease. The myth that Covid only affects older adults has been debunked in 2020.

All adults have the same increase in risk of death from Covid (figure).

But vaccines and access to healthcare change that risk.

[BMJ]

Read 23 tweets

Dr Dan Goyal

@danielgoyal

Feb 1

How lethal is Covid now?

A few scientists/statisticians have been comparing the ONS Covid survey with Flu modelling studies to compare infection fatality rates.

It is so important to understand how dangerous Covid is, but IMV, such comparisons are simply too inaccurate.

It is important to understand Covid risk:

1. We, the public, need to understand the risk so we can make a choice regarding masks, socialising and of course vaccination.

2. Policy-makers need to understand what impact Covid is likely to have on society and service provision.

The ONS survey has been an incredible resource. For those who don’t know, the ONS randomly samples thousands of U.K. citizens each week with PCR swabs. From this they can estimate the total number of Covid cases in the U.K.

It is effectively a weekly point prevalence study!

Read 16 tweets

Dr Dan Goyal

@danielgoyal

Jan 31

If we are moving to a new phase in the pandemic - vaccines, treatments and an “acceptable” death toll - success will depend on:

1. The state of healthcare services
2. Trust in Leadership

Worrying for some countries…

🧵

Firstly, what is success:

1. Minimise death and disability from the virus
2. Minimise death and disability from other health conditions - maintain other services!
3. Protect livelihoods and mental health of the population.

Vaccines…
…have been hugely successful. we would be in a completely different, dystopian world without them. And even though their effects wane, the protection from severe disease holds on longer. And new vaccines will be even better, IMV.

Read 17 tweets

Dr Dan Goyal

@danielgoyal

Jan 29

New Zealand have spent the majority of the last two years under less restrictions than the UK currently has in place (yes including freedom day!).

And here is Japan (for those arguing size, density, travel hub, etc…)

And here is somewhere closer to home….

Read 12 tweets

Dr Dan Goyal

@danielgoyal

Jan 28

@profnfenton

@profnfenton
I recently watched your explanatory video about Covid and the various problems with the data.
I think I followed your logic, but my concern relates to a few “big leaps” and the attempt to understand an illness I presume you have not seen very much of…
..if I can…

I appreciate the vulnerabilities in the data you have identified are genuine, but

1. Asymptomatic and non-infected are very different. The students were non-infected. Therefore the pick up rate of 36 false positives in the many thousands of samplings were well within <0.1%

2. The more likely reason for the initial spike in the data at the start of the vaccination roll-out is (IMV) more likely related to the genuine increased mortality associated with the overwhelmed hospitals. Excess home deaths have remained high throughout. And we see a…

Read 8 tweets