Dr Dan Goyal Profile picture
Feb 2 5 tweets 1 min read
It’s the question!
@Dr_D_Robertson has been asking it of our government for ages:

➡️ How many deaths do they consider “acceptable”?

Answer now seems to be: 250 deaths per day!
This makes Covid’s death toll the highest of any infectious disease:

4 X pneumonia deaths

60 X flu deaths
This means Covid is killing More than colon, breast and prostate cancer COMBINED.
And the kicker is, the risk of death (and likely disability) is increased for all adults, age-vulnerable or not (vaccine status being equal).
While the death rate is likely to fall at least in the short term, it’s an incredible acceptance of defeat for a wealthy nation.

There are simple measures we can take to reduce death, suffering, and to future proof the UK against the next variant/pandemic. Just needs leadership!

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More from @danielgoyal

Feb 4
1/ The “Omicron is mild narrative” is simply untrue and hugely harmful!

Scientists, doctors, experts and everyone else need to take responsibility for the harm done when minimising Covid - death and disability.

Thread 🧵
2/ There is no doubt that in the absence of boosters Omicron is a brutal infection for a significant number of people.

Still, for the majority it will pass without the need for medical care and recovery will be relatively uneventful. But some will have life-changing illness….
3/ There is no way of predicting who will get severe disease. The myth that Covid only affects older adults has been debunked in 2020.

All adults have the same increase in risk of death from Covid (figure).

But vaccines and access to healthcare change that risk.

[BMJ] Image
Read 23 tweets
Feb 1
How lethal is Covid now?

A few scientists/statisticians have been comparing the ONS Covid survey with Flu modelling studies to compare infection fatality rates.

It is so important to understand how dangerous Covid is, but IMV, such comparisons are simply too inaccurate.
It is important to understand Covid risk:

1. We, the public, need to understand the risk so we can make a choice regarding masks, socialising and of course vaccination.

2. Policy-makers need to understand what impact Covid is likely to have on society and service provision.
The ONS survey has been an incredible resource. For those who don’t know, the ONS randomly samples thousands of U.K. citizens each week with PCR swabs. From this they can estimate the total number of Covid cases in the U.K.

It is effectively a weekly point prevalence study!
Read 16 tweets
Jan 31
If we are moving to a new phase in the pandemic - vaccines, treatments and an “acceptable” death toll - success will depend on:

1. The state of healthcare services
2. Trust in Leadership

Worrying for some countries…

🧵
Firstly, what is success:

1. Minimise death and disability from the virus
2. Minimise death and disability from other health conditions - maintain other services!
3. Protect livelihoods and mental health of the population.
Vaccines…
…have been hugely successful. we would be in a completely different, dystopian world without them. And even though their effects wane, the protection from severe disease holds on longer. And new vaccines will be even better, IMV.
Read 17 tweets
Jan 29
New Zealand have spent the majority of the last two years under less restrictions than the UK currently has in place (yes including freedom day!).
And here is Japan (for those arguing size, density, travel hub, etc…)
And here is somewhere closer to home….
Read 12 tweets
Jan 28
@profnfenton
I recently watched your explanatory video about Covid and the various problems with the data.
I think I followed your logic, but my concern relates to a few “big leaps” and the attempt to understand an illness I presume you have not seen very much of…
..if I can…
I appreciate the vulnerabilities in the data you have identified are genuine, but

1. Asymptomatic and non-infected are very different. The students were non-infected. Therefore the pick up rate of 36 false positives in the many thousands of samplings were well within <0.1%
2. The more likely reason for the initial spike in the data at the start of the vaccination roll-out is (IMV) more likely related to the genuine increased mortality associated with the overwhelmed hospitals. Excess home deaths have remained high throughout. And we see a…
Read 8 tweets
Jan 27
Booster doses are waning.

Data from the UK’s vaccine study AND data from Israel give cause for concern.

Summary thread 🧵
Israel are well ahead of most of the world in 3rd doses of vaccines. But five months down the line the situation is concerning!
Cases, ICU patients, and deaths all rising steeply.

Hospital admissions at their highest levels since the pandemic began.
Read 12 tweets

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