Booster doses are waning.
Data from the UK’s vaccine study AND data from Israel give cause for concern.
Summary thread 🧵
Data from the UK’s vaccine study AND data from Israel give cause for concern.
Summary thread 🧵
Israel are well ahead of most of the world in 3rd doses of vaccines. But five months down the line the situation is concerning! 
Cases, ICU patients, and deaths all rising steeply.
Hospital admissions at their highest levels since the pandemic began.
Hospital admissions at their highest levels since the pandemic began.
The rate of ICU admissions highest yet and still rising.
Context:
We must bear in mind the huge number of cases Israel is experiencing. It looks like it is peaking at 3 times the rate of the UK, despite still having a positivity rate > 20% (lots of undetected cases too).
We must bear in mind the huge number of cases Israel is experiencing. It looks like it is peaking at 3 times the rate of the UK, despite still having a positivity rate > 20% (lots of undetected cases too).
And the actual individual chance of death once you get Covid continues to fall in Israel.
Although the real world risk of hospitalisation and death is higher given the increased chance of getting Covid just now.
Although the real world risk of hospitalisation and death is higher given the increased chance of getting Covid just now.
The bottom line is that more people are dying, needing hospitalisation, and needing intensive care.
There is a massive amount of hospital resources being redirected to Covid patients.
There is a massive amount of hospital resources being redirected to Covid patients.
And evidence from the UK also shows a drop in booster efficacy. Protection from admission after a Pfizer booster has fallen from 90% to 75% after 10 to 14 weeks.
https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1486754984154873860
What does it mean?
Risk of death once you get Omicron (assuming access to healthcare and boosted) remains relatively low (and much much lower than pre-vaccine).
But the actual individual risk with high levels of viral transmission is significant!
Risk of death once you get Omicron (assuming access to healthcare and boosted) remains relatively low (and much much lower than pre-vaccine).
But the actual individual risk with high levels of viral transmission is significant!
While Israel may weather the storm, the UK health service could not cope with another wave with higher admission rates.
We need to follow WHO guidelines and properly prepare for further waves…at least until vaccines and treatments improve further.
We need to get better (and less intrusive) at suppressing transmission. AND we need to strengthen health services, NOW!
It need not be a disaster!
We need to get better (and less intrusive) at suppressing transmission. AND we need to strengthen health services, NOW!
It need not be a disaster!
Meanwhile, get vaxed!!
This is probably the best time to actually get boosted/vaccinated… maximal protection for the Omicron wave while NHS in winter mode!
This is probably the best time to actually get boosted/vaccinated… maximal protection for the Omicron wave while NHS in winter mode!
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