Thread by @danielgoyal

@profnfenton
I recently watched your explanatory video about Covid and the various problems with the data.
I think I followed your logic, but my concern relates to a few “big leaps” and the attempt to understand an illness I presume you have not seen very much of…
..if I can…

I appreciate the vulnerabilities in the data you have identified are genuine, but

1. Asymptomatic and non-infected are very different. The students were non-infected. Therefore the pick up rate of 36 false positives in the many thousands of samplings were well within <0.1%

2. The more likely reason for the initial spike in the data at the start of the vaccination roll-out is (IMV) more likely related to the genuine increased mortality associated with the overwhelmed hospitals. Excess home deaths have remained high throughout. And we see a…

A big spike in all-cause excess mortality in Nov 20 to Feb 21 due to the shutdown of other services…
You can see the rise in excess deaths preceded the vaccine roll-out and continued for a couple of months.

3. The reduction in Triage calls were not just 999 calls, I believe, but 111 calls and online triaged too. There was a considerable spike in 999 calls at the start of the pandemic due to understandable reasons. Firstly, people presented shamefully late in the first wave..

…around 11-13 days. In part this was the stay home messaging and in part fear. But typically patients at that point are very severe and require an ambulance. Plenty of evidence to support this…time to intubation for majority of patients was < 1 day, and inpatient mortality was

30%. The cohort was much more severe. Over time, patients were presenting earlier and in less severity and many did not warrant an ambulance.
Clear spikes in each wave and post-freedom day. Time to presentation fell to now around day5-6. You can see Delta wave and freedom day

I do appreciate the statistical rabbit holes, but had you worked with Covid patients you would have seen this new disease and understood the massive effect of vaccines on severity and that the volume was real!