Where is pricing power strongest in the residential remodeling space? Where is it weakest? A thread:
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That's one of the biggest questions this year, as consumers stare down the highest inflation in four decades. 2/
Our latest research shows that BIG PROJECT REMODELS ARE LESS SENSITIVE TO RISING PRICES than small projects. 3/
In other words, consumers planning large remodels (like a major kitchen/bath update) say they are *MORE WILLING* to swallow price increases than those planning small projects (like repainting their home office).
Counterintuitive? Not necessarily... 4/
Why might this be? My humble take:
1) With the worst buying conditions in a generation and extremely limited opportunities to trade-up into newer, higher quality homes/locations, homeowners are hunkering down and planning to stay for longer
5/
2) The average homeowner is sitting on $53K of fresh equity in their house since the pandemic (and they're starting to tap it -- the next wave cash-out refis are just getting started, likely passing $100b per qtr in '21.)
6/
3) Large remodels are "must haves" and more likely to be undertaken by high income/wealthy households who can handle higher prices
7/
With prices up double-digits for almost every product category, this is worth keeping a close eye on...
(end thread)
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Growth in remodeling and home improvement projects stalled out over the past year. I put together 5 charts from our surveys and research explaining why:
1) Fed tightening meant only a small number of homeowners are willing to tap home equity to pay for large remodeling projects.
#Illinois remodeler: "Rates have increased, which has weakened demand for home improvement projects for those who [obtain] a loan for their project."
2) Homeowners pulled back on new remodeling projects.
#Ohio remodeler: "Inquiries in the last few weeks have begun to drop off. We do not have as many appointments to look at new work as we have had in the last couple of years."
“Housing is significantly affected by these higher rates.”
-Jay Powell today about the Fed’s impact on housing
Every month our team surveys 1,000+ agents across the US on what they're seeing in their local markets.
Short 🧵 on local housing markets from our monthly survey:
#Houston, TX: “Home prices have most first-time home buyers priced out of home ownership. It's even worse with the higher interest rates decreasing what the buyers can qualify for.”
#Denver, CO: “Cost of living [and] interest rate [increases] are keeping most buyers from buying.”
US Remodeler Index is out, 4 big themes this qtr: 1) Projects getting BIGGER. 2) Product/material lead times, labor shortages got worse. 3) Remodelers FLEXING pricing power to protect margin. 4) No homes to buy=more whole-home remodels. Commentary from remodelers here… 🧵 1/11
#Missouri Full-service Remodeler: "Delivery times are 32 weeks for my windows and 50 weeks for doors. Delivery delays have brought my projects to a halt and it will be early Q2 before we'll be able to start work again on substantial projects.” 2/11
#Illinois Home Improvement Pro: "We have shifted to other brands that kept lead times and pricing under control." 3/11
Esther George @KansasCityFed: "$6.9 trillion holdings of federal agency and longer-term Treasury debt is depressing the 10-year Treasury yield by roughly 150 basis points" -- I believe this misses a key point:
The market is a discounting mechanism, bringing the expected future into the present. And the Fed has telegraphed policy, emphasizing predictability. 2/
The market has responded accordingly. Since Dec 23rd: