Thread by @laurnorman

JUST RAN: The Biden administration expects a restored nuclear deal would leave Iran capable of amassing enough nuclear fuel for a bomb in significantly less than a year, U.S. officials familiar with the matter said. wsj.com/articles/u-s-s…

Biden administration officials discussed Break-out time scenarios last fall and concluded that re-creating the 12 month breakout time that underpinned the 2015 deal was unrealistic. Concluded it would be “significantly lower.” -2-

Lower breakout time estimates (& yes, these will always be estimates), will raise new questions about strength of a restored deal and the US aim for a future longer, stronger deal. Some in U.S., Israel voiced worries that a restored deal would give Iran a more for less deal. -3-

Still, serious current and ex-U.S. officials have argued that to respond to an Iranian nuclear ramp-up you probably only need six months. State Department says it’s confident a restored deal “would address our urgent nonproliferation concerns.” brookings.edu/research/const… -4-

Important always to distinguish breakout period as the time it would take Iran to amass enough nuclear fuel for a bomb as against how long it would take Iran to build a nuclear weapon, if it sought to. The latter is unknown but almost certainly longer. -5-

We wrote last July that there were already concerns among European officials about a lower breakout time and how Iran's nuclear work was complicating a potential deal. wsj.com/articles/irans… -6-

While breakout time will be significantly lower than in 2016, when deal came into effect, it’s currently just a few weeks as a result of Iran’s expansion of nuclear work after Trump administration re-imposed sanctions. -7-

All this comes as Iranian, U.S., European officials say chances of concluding a deal have risen, with significant gaps still there but talks focusing on the final, core, key decisions. Chief negotiators expected back in Vienna Friday/Saturday. wsj.com/articles/irans… -8-