I wrote this op-Ed on establishing durable piece in #Balochistan 3 years ago. Every word still relevant.
“Military needs to realise that hard approach alone can ensure only temporary peace & that a low-level insurgency could continue almost indefinitely”. dawn.com/news/1478672
A. Recipe 4 Peace in #Balochistan: 1) Recognise that #Baloch insurgency is mainly home-grown & that there is genuine local grievance caused by pol failures. 2) Appreciate tht kinetic measures alone can’t eliminate insurgency. A low-scale conflict could continue almost indefinitly
B. Recipe 4 #Peace#Balochistan 3. Develop comprehensive strategy 4 pol reconciliation. Broad contours are:
a) engage credible pol reps. Do away with artificial leaders u have propped up. They r part of problem & beneficiaries of conflict & stand to lose 4m pol reconciliation.
C. Recipe 4 peace #Balochistan
3(b): So, appointment of Shahzeb Bugti to lead reconciliation efforts was a non-starter, & a joke.
c) Cease all military operations while empowered committee of pol reps conduct negotiations. Repression & reconciliation can’t go well hand in hand.
d. Offer & enforce CBMs incl cessation of hostilities, withdrawal of Fac 4m certain areas, release missing persons who are alive & compensate families of those who are killed.
e. Be prepared for offering substantial concessions to the #Baloch.
E. Recipe 4 peace #Balochistan
e. CBMs alone or mere offers of amnesty won’t address long-standing structural divers of #Baloch conflict. Therefore, options of re-design of federal model & genuine control over Baloch national resources should be on the table.
3(f). Constitute a Commission of Parliamentarians headed by Baloch pol rep in NA to ensure effective implementation of Art 158, Art 172(3) & other issues.
Transfer ownership of Saindak to GoB
Give GoB 50% share in revenue & management of Gwadar.
4. Put an end to policy of using militant proxies for advancing regional strategic agenda. Durable peace in bordering regions of Pak can’t be established without major shift in Afghan, Iran & India policies.
1. The position taken by @HinaRKhar is the same that military est has been peddling for 10 years. Just bec she says it makes it no less problematic.
Here is why: 1) Pak claims that it has no favourites in AFG but at same time maintains that it can’t act against Taliban in Pak.
2. This position has inherent paradox. If #Taliban are using your territory to launch war against AFG govt, you are reluctant to use whatever it takes to prevent them from using ur territory, then u are FAVOURING Taliban agnst AFG Govt. So the “neutrality” claim is untenable.
3. Taliban recruit foot soldiers, raise funds & get medical treatment in Pak. Their families are based here.
Yes, Pak’s influence over Taliban is limited but it did have leverage—tht no other country in the region had.
None of this is exaggeration.HRK’s denial is simply a lie.
Welcomes the leadership of PDM, says words of special thanks for @BBhuttoZardari for inviting him and greets the people of Karachi. He has put on a Sindhi ajrak and calls Karachi a mini Pakistan. Pays tribute to the martyrs of #Karsaaz.
@mjdawar starts from where Mian Nawaz Sharif had finished his speech in Gujranwala. He endorses the hard-hitting speech of MNS and criticises PM IK for failing to respond to the genuine questions asked by MNS.
Demands a “Truth Commission” to investigate these allegations.
@mjdawar demands the constitution of a Truth Commission to investigate illegal military takeovers, the war imposed on ex-FATA & KP, the opaque military operations and the massacres of #Babrha and #Kharhqamar .
1. Chaman is the most imp border town along Durand Line in BAL. Social setup here is tribal. The DL has divided villages, tribes and relatives.
There are houses with one gate in Pak’s territory & another gate falling Afghan territory.
2. Border towns like Chaman & Taftan r backbone of BAL’s largely-informal economy. Closure of borders literally chokes economic activity in province.
Across #Chaman is the Waish Mandi, where Transit trade goods are offloaded. What we know as smuggling is trade for local people.
3. For decades, residents of Chaman used local permits to cross border. Didn’t need visas.
Over 30,000 ppl crossed border on daily basis. These included: Pak daily wagers & traders working in Waish; Afghan men, women & children coming to Quetta for medical checkup; lagharhis;
1)Most women in my region are treated inhumanely. They conceive 12 times on average, lack access to even basic healthcare, go 4 first ante-natal checkup only during last 2 months of pregnancy.
2) I know women who are regularly subjected to physical violence by husbands but they can’t even complain bec it might lead to even worse consequence ie divorce. Parents are usually aware but they are helpless in such circumstances.
Even people in pos of authority are of no help
3) I know women who made rotis & food for 40-50 everyday for 30-40 years. They do this while raising 10+ kids & doing all other domestic chores. They don’t get a word of thanks from menfolk, let alone being paid for the labour. Worse part, they still get beaten.
1. Many are furious over Afghans 4 reported violence of some fans yesterday. I made a tweet tht condemned this behaviour & tried to explain why ordinary Afghans hate us.
Reponses I got were full of hatred & lies--making me realise how ill-informed we are abt Pak-Afghan relations
2. Most referred to pre-1979 history of hostility.
Pre-1979, AFG remained a good neighbour except when Dawood was ruling. AFG provided us discreet help in 1965 & 1971 wars. In 1971, Brezhnev offerred King Zahir to join him & India in eliminating Pak. KZ rejected it.
3. Even Dawood could take a hostile position mainly bec of resentment among Pak Pashtuns, who felt they had a raw deal 4m the State.
Removal of Dr. Khan's govt, Babra masscare, incarceration of Bacha Khan & Samad Khan & imposition of One Unit contributed to Pashtun resentment.
@FinancialTimes story has reignited the debate on CPEC in Pak. Impassioned & heated debate on the subject has precluded nuanced discussion. CPEC is neither another East India Co nor a game changer. It is an opportunity that can go in our favour if we do our homework & vice versa
Few areas of legitimate concern reg CPEC are:
Sovereign guarantee crisis related to FDI in energy sector
High project costs proposed by Chinese feasibilities nd conflict of interest issues
Uncertainty abt mpact on local industries & regional disparities
Lack of transparency
All infrastructure CPEC projects are financed through soft loans. Problem is tht feasibility for these projects is also often carried out by Chinese side-a case of conflict of interest. Not surprisingly, costs proposed in feasibility are outrageously high. Couple of examples are: