I actually think this study is a really interesting example of how school closures have become a political battleground where scientific evidence largely doesn't matter
No one has ever argued, as far as I know, that ALL homeschooling is bad for kids. The discussion is always around a specific form of homeschooling where underprepared teachers with no resources are forced to homeschool kids during a pandemic
"Closing schools" isn't really about CLOSING the schools, but about whether the relative impact on kids when they learn from home IN A SPECIFIC SITUATION is bad
The reason this is all so interesting is because I suspect even the most vocal critics of school closures believe that there are ways of learning from home that are not harmful in the least. No one has called for religious homeschooling to be banned forever, for example
There have been online schools since the late 90s! I had kids in my year who did languages online because my high school didn't offer them. No one campaigned against those for some reason
So while the discussion has become wildly political, I suspect that everyone would agree that SUFFICIENTLY GOOD online schooling really is a replacement for in-person lessons
In that context, we might see this study as evidence that the Swiss model of distance learning is more effective than what was trialed in the US/elsewhere and incorporate that into discussions about interventions and future pandemics
Conversely, we could all yell at each other about how we hate kids, because it's obviously more fun to toss around insults than engage in reasonable conversations
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This paper has been doing the rounds, claiming that lockdown was useless (the source of the 0.2% effect of lockdown claim). Dozens of people have asked my opinion of it, so here we go:
In my opinion, it is a very weak review that doesn't really show much, if anything 1/n
2/n The paper is a systematic review performed by three very highly-regarded economists who have also been extremely anti-lockdown since March 2020. You can find it here: sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2022…
3/n As others have noted, this is a "working paper", which essentially means it's not peer-reviewed and reflects only the opinions of the three authors named
"Most people who died of COVID-19 have underlying health conditions"
Most people who die OF ANYTHING have underlying comorbidities
MOST ADULTS in many countries have at least 1 underlying health problem!
I mean, obesity is usually defined as a risk factor for Covid-19, as is hypertension. The combined prevalence of just those two issues in many countries is above 1 in 3 adults
Here's an estimate of the "at risk" population from the UK, which aggregated together cancer, heart disease, diabetes, asthma, severe obesity, and CKD. At age ~60, more than half of the population had at least one condition bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
This was a MASSIVE trial, that took place over more than 5 years, and thus is really quite a convincing answer to the question "can taking a vitamin D supplement reduce your risk of death if you don't have a diagnosed deficiency?"
Perhaps even more interestingly, even when stratifying by only those with reduced vitamin D levels, there was no benefit for supplementation
I always find it strange that people think it would be a bad thing if toxic lies were to fester in the dark, rotten places online
Like, those lies have ALWAYS been in those places. We just don't necessarily want them to have a platform *anywhere else*
If you give a ridiculous anti-vaccine conspiracy prime-time, all you are doing is legitimizing nonsense and giving it a platform. It has nothing to do with "shining a light" or whatever
If @lulumeservey and @SubstackInc were to do something about anti-vaccine advocates on their platform, it's true to say that these people would not disappear entirely
So, my wife is a coeliac, which means she gets extremely unwell whenever she eats gluten. Super fun. In the journey that is cooking for her, I came across this fascinating device called the Nima sensor
This cool little piece of tech processes food, then uses existing immunoassays to detect gluten in the sample. Put in your food, it'll tell you if it's actually gluten free
However, when I came across the product on Tiktok, there were tons of comments saying that the device constantly produced false positives and was not worth spending money on
Which I, naturally, got super excited by because it meant I could USE EPI IN REAL LIFE
I think the vaccine/COVID myocarditis issue in kids really shows the difference between those reasonably weighing up costs and benefits and those who are either dishonest or not very good at epidemiology 1/n
2/n We know two things with a great deal of certainty for younger people:
1. myocarditis following vaccination is rare 2. myocarditis following COVID-19 is rare
3/n This is probably not a surprise, because myocarditis is rare in younger people regardless of the situation. Here's a study that found an incidence of 2 cases per 100,000 kids each year ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…