Many papers rely on how we randomly assign defendants to ADAs or judges who are systematically harsher or more lenient.
A troubling q.
If we randomly assign you to judges known to be harsher or less so, it’s ok.
If a judge flips a coin to be harsher, it violates due process.
But … why?
Why is one sort of randomness okay but another not?
In one case, a coin toss sends you to the consistently harsher judge.
In the other, a single judge’s harshness is determined by a coin toss.
What is the real difference?
There are superficial distinctions, sure. One is a judge consistently applying their ideology, the other is noise.
But, to the defendant? The one with the due process right? The result is basically the same.
Feel like this is some sort of corollary to the Trolly Problem. Some sorts of randomness are acceptable level pulls, other ones are not. Wonder if there is some sort of regularity to it.
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Every now and then I just get this giant burst of frustrated amazement that SO much of law school, esp the 1L year, is still built almost exclusively around cases.
It's really bad, for a lot of reasons.
If nothing else, SO much of law these days is statutes and regulations.
And even the way more and more schools react to this is... not great. "Leg Reg"? It's a great idea (we have it), but... the framing.
It's its own special thing. Off to the side. One class.
We don't have a class on "Common Law." We call that Torts. And Property. And Contracts.
So it makes statutes and regulations seem like a speciality issue, not--as they actually are--the heart of the modern regulatory state's law.
In this case, something is wrong. Tokyo (and we'll come back in a second to what "Tokyo" and "London" even are) has been bigger than London before 2000.
At least based off these graphs, which track the numbers in the chart fairly closely.
But any comparison between cities is hard, bc what do we count? As this Guardian piece shows, defining a "major city" is actually really hard: theguardian.com/cities/2015/fe…
What is included, what is excluded? It can really shape how we see things.
It's shifting the burden of PRODUCTION from the defendant to the state. Which, I'm thinking, no other jurisdiction has done.
This is actually a big deal.
In all states but VA, the state bears the burden of proof: the state must reject the defendant's account of the need for defensive force beyond a reasonable doubt.
But the defendant has to affirmatively TELL A STORY.
So think about Zimmerman's trial, or Rittenhouse's. The state had to disprove their stories, but they had to tell them. Zimmerman had to say he was scared in the fight, as did Rittenhouse.
Def force defenses can be rejected bc a judge can say "your story, if true? Not enough."
He campaigned on something. He was elected by people who heard what he campaigned on, people who had multiple choices, a plurality of whom (in the primary, a majority in the general) decided they preferred that.
NYS is not a ... state without corruption. But the governor's recall power hasn't been used since the FDR administration.
The GOVERNOR FDR administration. Which ended in 1933.
Bragg announces a plan that in grounded in solid data about the impact, and general inefficacy, of prisons, and a plan that is only a slight adjustment of prior practice for violent crimes, and every politician goes full 80s-era tough on crime.
Been thinking about that pre-K-is-harmful study, and this part in particular.
Might this mean less that pre-K leads to more issues, and more that parents with pre-K exposure are more likely to know what services are available, and thus advocate for their kids more?
This is one of those "how we define the term determines the results" thing that I'm increasingly obsessed with.
This isn't asking "do kids have more special ed NEEDS." It's asking "do kids get more special ed SERVICES."
Seem like the same at first, but... maybe not!
We can't really see needs, not directly. It gets filtered through what teachers are willing to say, what parents are willing to admit... and what parents are willing to advocate for.
And pre-K exposure might have parental impacts as well.
I think—and, honestly, I’m not really joking—we’ve hit the point where major criminology journals need to declare a one (two? five?) yr moratorium on papers using admin data, and focus on a host of papers laying out how, exactly, we can use that data.
And I mean the major journals, not the lower-ranked ones. This isn’t some second-tier methodological issue. This gets at the heart of every quantitative paper using admin data. It’s a first-most toppest-tied issue.
Our admin data is… just a giant minefield.
Like, the UCR flaws are well known, but as you dig down into them, they just get worser and worser, like some fractal of fail.
We need to identify what data seems more reliable, which is less, how we can carefully impute across the gaps, how we can cross-validate, etc etc etc.