Thread by @AdamJKucharski

There are many problems with below study, but what's striking is how many people sharing 'lockdowns do nothing' claims unquestioningly don't seem to realise that paper at the same time concludes mandated mask wearing has a substantial effect... 1/

https://twitter.com/whippletom/status/1489197128916389894

Despite the headline claim about 'lockdown' being essentially based on a single study (because it's weighted so heavily in the estimates – see thread above), the authors note the mask result (which apparently contradicts their main conclusion) is based 'on only two studies'... 2/

'Lockdown' is one of those terms that has meant many different things to many different people during pandemic, from Wuhan-style stay at home measures to any restriction at all. Above study uses any mandatory measure to mean 'lockdown' in main analysis... 3/

But some measures, such as travel quarantine or bans, will count towards higher stringency even though they will have limited impact on curbing an already growing domestic epidemic... 4/

Any sensible attempt at evaluation of impact of control measures therefore needs to separate out different components and their relative timings, e.g. nature.com/articles/s4146… 5/

Finally, I think an important message from above paper is to not get dazzled by pages and pages of literature review and statistical tables – should always remember to ask whether analysis holds up to basic sense checks. 6/6