1) Was confused about why China was even hosting the Winter Olympics since they are notoriously unprofitable.
Also, Chinese people don't ski, right? Right? Why we getting involved in something that's not entertaining or lucrative?
So I went digging.
2) The answer: China's using Winter Olympics as a focal point to drive domestic interest and spending in winter sport tourism and commerce.
So the aim is that while not much of the population is interested in winter sports before, they gonna be after the Olympics.
3) Chinese consumers do not have winter leisure sporting traditions.
Lack of demand also diminished supply, there's no supporting ice rinks, ski lodge or slope in terms of infrastructure.
But Chinese consumers do have something going for them. They love new things.
4) Getting Chinese consumers interested in winter sports can kill a couple of birds with one stone.
- Promote consumption upgrading since winter sports are not cheap
- Develop more domestic tourism in poorer and colder northern regions
- Create new supply-side industries
5) So this is how it's looking to go down.
1. The Winter Olympics gets people interested in new and strange sports. 2. Bunch of policies to promote venue construction and training 3. Auxiliry sporting industries spring up and habits become set 4. ???? 5. Profit
6) By early 2021, China boasted 654 standard ice rinks, an increase of 317% from 2015. Indoor and outdoor ski resorts had reached 803, up 41% increase from 2015.
The Chinese gov aims for the ice and snow industry to be $157.2 bn by 2025
7) Now snow sports is quickly becoming a leisure marker for the middle class just like it has been in Europe and US.
Sichuan and Guangzhou have seen ticket sales surge for their indoor ski resorts. Yulong Snow Mountain in Yunnan saw 40% in ticket sales in 2021 relative to 2019.
8) Skiing equipment makers are making bank. Brands like Anta, Toread and 361 Degrees have all released a snowsuit and retailers are super happy since margins on these things are like 40 to 50%
9) So consumers get a new way to show off, exercise and travel domestically. Retailers are happy since there is now a growing market with healthy margins. Policymakers are happy since everyone's spending.
Wins all around.
10) All it takes is having a marquee marketing event like the Winter Olympics. So even if the event is loss-making, China's making a bet they'll make it up on stimulating and cultivate a long term national past-time.
So I was like, damn, you sneaky policy folks. You so sneaky smart
Also this wasn’t even a hidden thing, my main sources of info was China Daily newspaper and a 2 hour long documentary playing on CCTV about the Winter Olympics.
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1) To give a clear example of how I researched, framed and synthesised.
Here's a breakdown of how I put one of my pieces together - specifically on Chinese agriculture tech.
A topic I had little knowledge about beforehand but was able to write a 1,500+ piece in a week.
2) To refresh, my process is:
- Start off with tree trunk knowledge / primers
- Have key questions you are asking
- Background mental models / similar examples
- The finding additional info
- Talk to people and then talk some more
3) For the agricultural piece, I started to look for primers by googling, scanning documents quickly to see what keywords arose.
Turns out the keywords was 'Digital Agriculture' in Chinese, and once I found the particular lexicon for the field, going further was easier.
1) Question I get asked semi-frequently is how I do research / get up to speed on a new topic.
My skills were honed from 2.5 years of management consulting and ~5 years of VC. It's been invaluable since landing in China and starting to learn about Chinese tech
Let's talk how:
2) My process is the follow:
- Start off with tree trunk knowledge / primers
- Have key questions you are asking
- Background mental models / similar examples
- The art of finding additional info
- Talk to people and then talk some more
3) I think it was Wait but why who first framed that learning is about getting a good grasp of the basic shape (aka the tree trunk) before going into the details (the leaves).
This is why I start every search looking for primers on the subject in both English and Chinese.
1) So ByteDance 'disbanding' their investment team is the news of the day. While it's easy to say this is because of the new regulations around investment approvals, the reality is more complicated
2) ByteDance has bi-monthly (every two month) OKR reorgs. Yep, every two months. This means an organisation that is agile at best and chaotic at worst.
Teams spin-up and spin-down with relatively high frequency.
Re-org of a whole team, even with 100 people, is not new.
3) The investment team had about 3 different heads in 3 years. From Yan Shuo who's now head of gaming to Alex Zhu of former Musicaly, and now Zhao Pengyuan (who reports to Alex Zhu). For a division, the constant change must be a reflection of it trying to find clear direction
1) Let's talk about the generational mental model differences in China and its impact.
Rather than talking about boomers, gen x, millennials and zoomers. Chinese media segments their population by birth year ranges with monikers of post-80s generation, post-90s and post-00s.
2) This is very fine dicing of the population but highly relevant.
Given China's fast pace change, every decade saw substantial changes in living conditions and therefore massive shifts in that generation's mindsets and values.
3) China went from a state of material scarcity in the early 1980s to high variance in affluence by the 2000s. The transition to more abundance mindsets is clearly seen with each generation.
(variance across regions applies, but this holds especially true for the top cities)
1) Let's talk about how Xiaomi's one of the savviest and stealthiest Chinese tech investors bar none.
Their playbook involves selling mobiles close to margin to land a consumer, before upselling that customer on products they've invested in.
Almost Shopify for hardware
2) Xiaomi famously announced they would never make more than 5% in profit margin from hardware in 2018.
Because they see the phone as a distribution channel for their platform of products and services, the phones are cheap to basically acquire consumer 'traffic'.
3) Xiaomi carries over 2,000 consumer devices in their online and offline stores, of which it is only responsible for a select few, like TV, Xiaomi Pad and speakers.
The rest is made by 400 partner companies.
But Xiaomi isn't a simple retailer, they are a platform