Maybe this is crazy, but I could see Republicans appealing to SCOTUS, arguing that the state court ruling usurped the power of the state legislature to set the rules for congressional elections in Art. 1 s 4. Would require SCOTUS to overturn Arizona Ind. Redist. case /1
This would be a way to test the so-called "independent state legislature" theory outside the context of a presidential election and with a target that SCOTUS conservatives don't like: a Democratic dominated state supreme court in a state with a Republican legislature. /2
The argument is audacious and wrong: it is that a state Supreme Court relying on a state constitutional right does not have any power over a state legislature setting rules for congressional elections. It would rely on the Bush 1 concurrence from the 2000 election. /3
And it would be in great tension with the Supreme Court's decision in 2015 holding that Arizona voters could set up an independent redistricting commission cutting out the legislature without violating Art. 1 s 4. 4
But Justice Kavanaugh recently wrongly suggested that the 2000 Bush v. Palm Beach County Canvassing Board endorsed the independent state leg doctrine when Fla Supreme Court relied on state constitution to alter time limits for recounts. /5
And the 2015 Arizona case was 5-4, with CJ Roberts writing one of his strongest dissents. The Court personnel has changed and 2 of the Justices in the majority are no longer on the Court. /6
Would they overturn precedent so quickly, in such a highly political case, especially after SCOTUS in Rucho pointed to independent commissions and state courts as paths for dealing with partisan gerrymandering? /7
And would Republicans want to open up states like California to naked partisan gerrymandering by Democratic legislatures? We will see. It would be ugly and terrible and have bad ramifications for voting laws passed by initiatives. /8
I should be clear that such a ruling, if successful, would apply *only* to order to redraw CONGRESSIONAL maps, not state maps. /9 #ncpol#ncga
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Today's RNC censure and Pence speech clarified that the Republican Party is at a crossroads. Back in the early 2010s, I wrote at a Drake Law symposium on the tea party/establishment split, and eventually saw the Tea Party breaking off from Rs. That was backwards /1
Trump is the heir of the Tea Party, the inheritor of the Sarah Palin base, and he managed to capture enough of the Republican party base to hold the establishment Republicans hostage. But Trump did more than just unify the wing. /2
Trump established a cult of personality around him in which personal loyalty triumphed over policy. So Trump follows Tea Party priorities on cultural issues, abortion, guns, immigration. So he has capital to use it to punish political enemies. /3
Twitter is a great leveler and can get interesting people in conversation. but the herd mentality and the cyber snark and psuedo-bullying is just a turnoff. I can take it, but it's not pleasant and some days not worth it.
And some days I'm just plain resentful that I and millions of others produce content of value to other people for the profit of Twitter, and with a fair amount of aggravation along the way.
My new oped in the @nytimes: "We must not succumb to despair or indifference. It won’t be easy, but there is a path forward if we begin acting now, together, to shore up our fragile election ecosystem." nytimes.com/2022/01/07/opi…
Let’s begin by reviewing some of the key problems. Those who administer elections have faced threats of violence and harassment. One in four election administrators say that they plan to retire before 2024.
Republican election and elected officials who stood up to Mr. Trump’s attempt to rig the 2020 vote count are being pushed out or challenged for their jobs in primaries by people embracing Mr. Trump’s false claims, like Representative Jody Hice.
And the way to think about January 6 is not what it meant for then but about the lessons it teaches for election subversion next time, as i lay out in this @harvlrev Forum forthcoming article:
@HarvLRev Josh, you should spend time as I have talking to people like @LarryDiamond Steve Levitsky, Gretchen Helmke, who study how democracies become authoritarian countries. The danger signs are all here.
I wrote five opeds and commentaries in 2021 about the risk of election subversion and what we need to do to help preserve American democracy from the risk of a stolen presidential election in 2024. It started with this pre-Jan 6 @theatlantic piece: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
And Eastman's whole point is preposterous: he put "crazy" wrong theories in a legal memo from him to be distributed to others, without even noting that the arguments are weak or don't represent his own views? No respectable lawyer does that in giving legal advice.
And even now Eastman hedges, saying the issue of the VP's authority to unilaterally reject electoral votes is not "resolved." Absurd and dangerous.