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NEW (thread): North Carolina GOP recently passed new gerrymandered legislative districts. We filed an amicus brief you can read here proposing alternate nonpartisan districts for the court. These maps show the state Senate (GOP's map on left) dailykos.com/stories/2019/1… #NCpol #NCGA
These maps show the North Carolina GOP's new state House gerrymander (first map) & the two nonpartisan maps we proposed instead (our two are very similar to each other) dailykos.com/stories/2019/1… #NCpol #NCGA
Although the court barred using partisan data when drawing new maps, they didn't bar using it to assess the maps afterward, which we've done using 3 common measures of bias. New GOP remedial maps still have sizable bias. Our maps have a smaller GOP bias & are fairer #NCpol #NCGA
Read 14 tweets
Last panel of the PS1NC forum .
First speaker is Richard Kahlenberg of the "Century Foundation."
He starts out by mocking the 'days of the racist tea party'.
The Century Foundation is a "progressive nonpartisan" think tank.

The board includes former Obama adviser Mark Zuckerman & Ed Sec John King.

Kahlenberg says "diversity makes us smarter."
Kahlenberg is referring to the 1966 Coleman report that said Socioeconomic status is the biggest predictor of Ed success.
Also a 2019 report that reasserts that.
Doesn't address that despite integration, achievement has stalled.
Read 32 tweets
Back from the break at the PS1NC 'privatization of public schools' forum.
Up now is a panel of teachers, all of whom are affiliated with the NCAE, Red4Ed or both.
Red4Ed leader Angie Scioli is giving written remarks throwing shade on charters, claiming dirty classrooms, nepotism, and sketchy benefits.

Scioli was one of several who helped foment the May Day strike this year.
Scioli gives anonymous anecdotes of charter teachers bring untrained and schools bring "dumpster fires."
Asked random kids on camping trip this summer about their school ...
Read 37 tweets
📺NEWS Thread📰
#ncga #ncpol #ERA

NC may just become the 38th state to ratify the #ERA this year!

NC State Senator @EricaforUSSen20 made NC history Thursday filing a discharge petition to free ERA bill S184 from committee to force a floor vote this session! 1/

@ratifyERAorg
@EricaforUSSen20 @ratifyeraOrg @EricaforUSSen20 employed the same Discharge Petition process first used by US Rep. Martha Griffiths in 1970 to force Congress to vote on the #ERA. Introduced in 1923, the #ERA bill was ignored for 47 years! That is 'til Rep. Griffith got fed up! 2/
@EricaforUSSen20 @ratifyeraOrg US Rep. Griffiths initiated a Discharge Petition, a method lawmakers use to free a bill intentionally buried in committee. By gathering enough petition signatures, Griffiths' #ERA DP forced a floor vote and accountability on her colleagues. in 1972, Congress passed #ERA and..3/
Read 7 tweets
This is a continuation of my apples-to-apples comparison of the #NCGA's remedy legislative plans to expert witness Mattingly's simulated plans. This thread focuses on the NC House County Groups. The Senate county groups can be found below:
First up is the Alamance House County Cluster:
I have some concerns about compactness in this cluster, but the partisan seat share and the vote margins look good compared to the simulations. I think this county group will pass.
Next: the Buncombe County House Group.

This group has gone from an extreme GOP gerrymander to an extreme Dem gerrymander. It does not pass muster and I'm certain will be redrawn.
Read 24 tweets
This thread is a continuation of the thread I started last night (below). Here I'll be doing an apples-to-apples comparison of the #NCGA's remedial Senate plan to the old enacted plan and Mattingly's simulations.

There are 2 things to look at: seat share and margins of victory.
In some county groups, the seat share doesn't differ between the enacted plan & the simulated plans, but they were still found to be partisan gerrymanders. A good example is the Davie-Forsyth Senate group. ALL of the simulations yield 1 GOP & 1 Dem seat, same as the enacted plan.
In the figure above, the black dots represent the Dem seat share of the old enacted plan in each of these elections & the blue shapes represent the distributions of Dem seat share in the approximately 2200 simulated plans drawn by a computer.
Read 23 tweets
I've done an apples-to-apples comparison of the #NCGA remedial legislative maps to the old maps & to the simulated plans created by expert witness @jcmattingly & you know what guys?

They're not perfect, but they're a big improvement.

I'm as shocked as you are. #ncpol #fairmaps
Mattingly used a set of 17 statewide elections from 2008-2016 to evaluate the former enacted plan against his simulated plans in his report. I calculated the Dem vote share from these same elections for the new maps so I could compare them directly to the data in the report.
This is only possible because Mattingly shared the report on his blog: sites.duke.edu/quantifyingger…

I am gratuitously copying and pasting figures from this pdf and plopping dots onto the figure -- it's not fancy at all, but it gets the job done, esp since I don't have the raw data.
Read 15 tweets
Unreal. Half of North Carolina Senate Dems largely voted for the GOP's new modestly-less-gerrymandered map, likely in part because some Dems got favorable seats to protect neighboring GOP incumbents. This happened in MO, OH, & PA after 2010, now it's happening again #NCpol #NCGA
Dem NC Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue is helping Republicans with statements like this. I showed yesterday how an alternate High Point map could be less unfavorable to Dem Sen. Michael Garrett in District 27 while still following the court's order
The real message coming from North Carolina's Democratic state Senate leader is that they'd rather prefer their own seats remain safe even if it means the entire map still has gerrymandering to favor Republicans. Putting themselves before their party & voters #NCpol #NCGA
Read 9 tweets
Good evening from the North Carolina Senate, where they’re planning to vote on new maps to replace the ones rules unconstitutional earlier this month

The maps passed committee nearly unanimously but this larger vote might be more controversial; we shall see in a few #ncpol #ncga
In case you were doing something last Friday night *other* than following the redistricting process like us cool kids, here's my article from when the House passed their own maps #ncpol #ncga newsobserver.com/news/politics-…
Republican @RalphHise says the map/process "meets all the criteria the court has laid out and, quite frankly, should be a national model"

Democrat @DanBlueNC agrees: "I think it was a remarkable experience especially when you consider the current political climate" #ncpol #ncga
Read 7 tweets
@NCHouseSpeaker just stated in session that today’s Redistricting Committee Meeting (which was supposed to start at 9 am) is the only opportunity for in person public comment on the final NC House maps. However, the maps have not been posted yet & no one knew this until now. 🤷‍♀️
@RepDavidRLewis states 2 minutes per Speaker & new maps are just now being distributed. As you can see, not many members of the public are here.
@CommonCauseNC @LWVofWake @LWVNCarolina @democracync
The hearing is starting and no one has signed up. #ncpol
Read 26 tweets
.@CommonCauseNC accuses Senate redistricting Committee of violating court order. Hise did kick the public and media out of the area where members were drawing maps yesterday evening- it could be seen on the live feed #ncga #ncpol
With the main live video feed- you can only hear audio from one of the computer stations, but you can’t see the computer screen at the same time as you’re hearing folks talk- just a broad large take of the room as a whole #ncga #ncpol
There are video streams of the computer screens, but no audio accompanying them at the same time. So, essentially, you have to choose between seeing or hearing when it comes to the feeds #ncga #ncpol
Read 18 tweets
Just as I'm ready to publish the demographic & electoral result calculations for their first proposal ... Well, I'll have the calculations for their newest map as soon as I get a shapefile or block equivalency file
While the GOP is devising their latest map to fix their illegal gerrymander of North Carolina's state Senate, here's my latest working draft of what I'd draw:
Although the court didn't strike down District 24 in Guilford County, here's why I think it should be slightly redrawn anyway: Doing so enables me to put the entire city of High Point in District 27, eliminating another split municipality, which is one of the court's criteria
Read 8 tweets
BREAKING: In an absolute stunner, @NCHouseGOP calls surprise vote on morning of #9/11, override @NC_Governor veto to pass budget with barely half of members present. @ABC11_WTVD @ABCPolitics @NCGOP @NCDemParty @JTHVerhovek @rickklein #ncpol #ncga
MORE: Surprise move by @NCHouseGOP & @NCHouseSpeaker brings dramatic - if not chaotic - to budget standoff with @NC_Governor & @NCDemParty who broke supermajorities in 2018 election. @ABC11_WTVD @rickklein @JTHVerhovek @ABCPolitics #ncpol #ncga
EVEN MORE: Latest @NCHouseGOP move caps remarkable week for @NCGOP, including @realDonaldTrump visit to push @jdanbishop to #NC09 win; Republicans also conceded defeat in state court on #gerrymandering & began work on new maps. @ABC11_WTVD @ABCPolitics @JTHVerhovek #ncga #ncpol
Read 21 tweets
Had a conversation this morning about how to draw NC's remedial House and Senate districts from scratch and thought I should share my thoughts here... a thread (with data). #ncpol #ncga #fairmaps #commoncausevlewis
Yesterday, GOP redistricting committee members said that they wanted to start with one of Chen's maps as a starting point because it would just be too hard for legislative staff to draw a base map from scratch. I disagree.
For starters, there is no reason to start with census blocks in order to get population deviance within the acceptable range of ideal plus or minus 5%. With that large of a range, we can work with VTD's (or "precincts" as sometimes they are called). There are a lot fewer of them.
Read 44 tweets
The bill they're talking about here, #H140, that is starting to lose Democratic support, is the same one that the legislative defendants just cited Art Pope as having endorsed when offering him as a gerrymandering referee.
If you don't know who Art Pope is, he's the North Carolina Republican mega-donor behind the GOP REDMAP effort that led to maps that have been found to be both partisan *and* racially gerrymandered by multiple courts.
Now, I wouldn't trust any redistricting reform bill that Art Pope endorsed. As the Common Cause trial showed, #NCGA Republican leadership has acted in bad faith at every turn on this issue. Even now in offering Pope as "referee" they're basically trolling the court.
Read 33 tweets
A win for North Carolina! The state Supreme Court strikes down the legislative map as a partisan gerrymander. Unreviewable by federal courts. A big step forward for voting-rights federalism.
commoncause.org/north-carolina…
At the Princeton Gerrymandering project, we've laid out a conceptual framework for how to address partisan gerrymandering through state courts. First in Pennsylvania and today in North Carolina, there's a clear path forward.

Legal theory: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
And in work that won a national prize from Common Cause, we've shown how the statistical standards and math developed for federal cases can now be applied with ease in state courts.
blog.harvardlawreview.org/an-antidote-fo…
Read 6 tweets
So, some aspects/thoughts of the 356-page opinion (with screenshots) regarding the NC redistricting/partisan gerrymandering case that was handed down this afternoon & holding the state legislative maps unconstitutional. #ncpol

Official copy found here: nccourts.gov/assets/inline-…
First, the court (after giving a history of this case for 291 pages) gives the constitutional reasoning for striking down the state legislative maps, first basing it on NC Constitution's 'Free Elections Clause" found in the Declaration of Rights: ncleg.gov/EnactedLegisla… #ncpol
As noted, the court finds that the Free Election Clause has had very little judicial interpretation, but that "all acts" related to elections should allow for "fair and honest elections." #ncpol
Read 25 tweets
Over the past several weeks, we sent reporters and photographers to some of the places in North Carolina where political lines are said to disenfranchise voters the most. Here's what they found 👇(1/10)

#ncpol #ncga
newsobserver.com/news/politics-…
Gerrymandering is the practice of drawing district boundary lines to benefit a political party or group. Politicians decide the lines. And the lines decide who gets to vote for which politicians. (2/10)
Many of the places where gerrymandering is most apparent in 2019 are also places with a history of racial strife: From Wilmington and a bloody white supremacist coup in 1898 to Greensboro and the Woolworth's sit-ins during the Civil Rights Movement. #ncpol (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
BREAKING: #NCGA has approved #HB370, the anti-immigrant bill that forces sheriffs to do ICE's bidding or face removal from office.

We join 100+ groups & 80 businesses calling on @NC_Governor Cooper to veto this extreme attack on our communities. #ncpol
acluofnorthcarolina.org/en/press-relea…
@NC_Governor With his veto, @NC_Governor Cooper can stop this extreme anti-immigrant agenda and send an important message that he supports local law enforcement, due process, and the rights of all communities.

Join us in urging Gov. Cooper to veto #HB370 👇

action.aclu.org/send-message/N…
@NC_Governor Version en Español: Dile al Gobernador Cooper: #StopHB370! action.aclu.org/send-message/g…
Read 3 tweets
The fact our state does not have a uniform system of background checks is just 1 aspect of the problem NC has with teachers being arrested for sexual contact with students.
wect.com/2019/08/19/sti…
#nced #ncga
#THREAD
For years I've tracked teacher arrests at a national level, but then with a focusing on NC. Some arrests are for drugs, DWI or other reasons, but the vast majority are for sexual offenses with kids. I've called this activity the #QuietEpidemic

ladyliberty1885.com/category/educa…
#nced #ncga
I tracked NC arrests reported by media and through tips sent to me by law enforcement.
2016 34 arrests
2017 55 arrests
2018 41 arrests
2019 39 arrests (So far.)
#nced #ncga
Read 13 tweets
1/9 From CC v. Lewis: A particularly striking property of the #ncga 2017 Redistricting Plan was the firewall protecting Republican majorities and supermajorities #gerrymandering #quantifyinggerrymandering
#commoncause
2/9 In trial, we showed animated bar-graphs giving the frequency of different democratic seat counts in the State House as votes from various historical elections were shifted to have statewide Dem. vote fractions between 45% and 55%.
3/9 The story is NOT about proportional representation, rather about how results using #ncga 2017 maps (represented by arrow) systematically under-elected Democrats to a shocking degree (here using presidential
votes from 2012)
Read 9 tweets
NC Partisan gerrymandering day two thread -- we expect to hear from plaintiffs' experts today at 9 am. A few attorneys and a few audience members have already started trickling in the courtroom #ncga #ncpol
The attorneys in the room and a Campbell AV dude are currently trying to figure out where to place a giant TV for plaintiffs' presentation today #ncga #ncpol
It looks like the giant TV will be right in front of the @WRAL camera live streaming the trial... #ncga #ncpol
Read 74 tweets
We are starting now with opening statements. Stanton Jones is making the case for the plaintiffs in the NC partisan gerrymandering trial #ncga #ncpol
Jones says we will hear testimony from 35 plaintiffs in the case #ncga #ncpol
Jones: This case is about how NC legislative districts have been intentionally and systematically help Republicans win #ncga #ncpol
Read 95 tweets

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