Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr: better but still not good
* 706 new cases/day
* 257 pediatric cases/day
* 13.5% positivity rate
* 67 deaths

1/

Since we just started a new month, let's begin by stepping back to look at monthly data.

As you can see, with nearly 55,000cases, January more than doubled the previous high of 20,000 back in August.

Likewise, the positivity rate of 31% topped the 21% from August.

2/

Pediatric cases weren't being tracked - or at least weren't shared publicly - until the last wk of August.

But the total number of pediatric cases from September thru December - 122 days - was just 11,000.

And then January saw more than 15,000 pediatric cases in 31 days.

3/

Finally, deaths.

The number of covid deaths dropped dramatically after vaccines became widely available mid-Feb 2021.

But then we had 132 in Aug, 193 in Sept, & 194 in Oct.

There were "only" 68 in Nov, then 179 in Dec, and now 219 in Jan.

This is not okay.

4/

Despite talk about how omicron was less deadly than previous waves, the past 4wks have been the deadliest 4wks since vaccines were made widely available a year ago.

Yes, omicron is less deadly as a % of cases, but the sheer # of cases meant an incredible # of deaths.

5/

As @Mediaverse has observed, local news constantly talks about the "crisis" of homicide deaths. And politicians use this "crisis" to argue for more police.

The count was just under 350 for 2021.

Well, there have already been 270 covid deaths in the first 36 days of 2022.

6/

If we need to take drastic measures to bring in police officers who don't live in our community because of 350 homicide deaths in a year...

...what are we doing about the 1,600 covid deaths last year?

...or the 270 covid deaths in just 5wks this year?

7/

By the way, covid vaccines prevented over 1-million deaths in the past year!

That is absolutely incredible.

And that's just in the US. So imagine how many lives around the world were saved.

Has anything been more pro-life in our lifetime?

8/

Also, let me say this: I am pro-life.

And I would challenge all who care about people dying all around our city, our state, our nation, & our world to claim the language of "pro-life."

It's time to take it back from those who clearly don't care about life.

9/

By the way, you know what else is a pro-life issue?

Infrastructure.

At one point yesterday, a full 1/3 of households were w/o power. And 3 days in, we're still at 22%.

All while it's been below freezing.

This is dangerous.

10/

On a related note, read this piece by @SteimerSays for @MLK50Memphis about our city's warming center situation - and about a homeless man freezing to death recently.

Please help pay for his memorial service: gofund.me/595c36f7

mlk50.com/2022/01/21/a-h…

11/

Okay, back to covid data...

Cases continue to drop steadily.
-36% over 1wk
-54% over 2wks
-71% over 4wks

12/

Even still, the 706 cases/day this week is higher than all but 2wks before the current wave.

The wk of Sept5 2021 had 774 cases/day. And the wk of Dec13 2020 had 844 cases/day.

Even after dropping 71% over 4wks, we're still looking at more new cases each day than ever.

13/

That said, we're just a couple weeks away from being back to relative safety.

Remember, we were below 200 cases/day from Oct10 thru Dec17, as well as Feb15 thru July23.

And we were under 100 from May22 thru July 10 & Oct24 thr Nov10.

I expect this to happen again.

14/

There's a lot of talk now about off-ramps for masks.

And after going to a concert last night where proof of vaccine was required, it was great to go w/o a mask.

I just wish schools would require vaccines in order for kids (& staff) to return after Spring Break.

15/

Pediatric cases are down 32% to 257/day, about even to where we were back in mid-Sept.

But I wonder how school closures affect pediatric cases. We were down 22% until schools closed.

Pediatric cases reached 39% of total cases Th, then dropped to 36% after schools closed.

16/

Likewise, while I'm sure student cases are down, I don't think they're down this much (left).

But 450 cases in 3 days of school would give us 600 cases for 5 days.

And as you could see (right), that would still be down a solid 28%.

17/

Same with teachers/staff.

The 253 cases in 3 days (left) becomes 337 in 5 days (right).

Compared to the 353 last week, that's not much of a decrease.

18/

As you can see, covid-related absences spiked in the last month.

But schools were hit extremely hard by covid-related absences in the past month, with over 2,000 staff out locally.

That's 6.7% of all district staff!

Triple the national average!

19/

And this is why I'm not ready to un-mask yet at school. In fact, I wish we'd require N-95 masks, especially with vax rates so low for kids.

Or what about this...

If you are vax'd, you don't have to wear a mask at school. But if you're not, you have to wear an N-95.

20/20