Quick update on the state of the pandemic in the US
Nationally,
Infections are down 60%
Hospitalizations down about 30%
Deaths have largely plateaued at a very high 2500+ per day
Beneath the headlines, we see dropping infections in every part of the country
Nationally,
Infections are down 60%
Hospitalizations down about 30%
Deaths have largely plateaued at a very high 2500+ per day
Beneath the headlines, we see dropping infections in every part of the country
Here are the four largest states
Geographically, politically diverse with very different strategies and mitigation policies
Infections are down 50-80% across these states
And hospitalizations have turned the corner in each of these states
Deaths are starting to follow
Geographically, politically diverse with very different strategies and mitigation policies
Infections are down 50-80% across these states
And hospitalizations have turned the corner in each of these states
Deaths are starting to follow
In fact, based on analysis from @CovidActNow
Infections are falling in 47 states. And quickly
And in 3 states, they have plateaued
That's good
So what happens next?
Several things
Infections are falling in 47 states. And quickly
And in 3 states, they have plateaued
That's good
So what happens next?
Several things
Nationally, we should see deaths turning down in about a week
Because deaths lag cases by 3 weeks
I also expect trends in deaths to vary by states
Because in highly vaccinated states, cases have not resulted in deaths to same degree as in less vaccinated statesd states
Because deaths lag cases by 3 weeks
I also expect trends in deaths to vary by states
Because in highly vaccinated states, cases have not resulted in deaths to same degree as in less vaccinated statesd states
What about BA.2, the subvariant of Omicron?
It clearly is more contagious
Our vaccines still hold up
It has slowed descent of infections in the UK
We may see that here though I'm skeptical it will cause another surge
Assuming that is correct, what happens next?
It clearly is more contagious
Our vaccines still hold up
It has slowed descent of infections in the UK
We may see that here though I'm skeptical it will cause another surge
Assuming that is correct, what happens next?
Expect a reasonably good spring with declining infections, fewer hospitalizations and deaths
End of the pandemic?
No
Future variants?
Probably
A time to prepare for the future by building up stocks of tests, masks, therapies, work on better vaccines?
Absolutely!
End of the pandemic?
No
Future variants?
Probably
A time to prepare for the future by building up stocks of tests, masks, therapies, work on better vaccines?
Absolutely!
In sum
We're on the declining end of Omicron surge
Infections in some places back to pre-Omicron levels
Others will soon follow
Deaths still horribly high, largely driven by our poor vaccination rates
That should also, hopefully decline substantially in the upcoming weeks
We're on the declining end of Omicron surge
Infections in some places back to pre-Omicron levels
Others will soon follow
Deaths still horribly high, largely driven by our poor vaccination rates
That should also, hopefully decline substantially in the upcoming weeks
Means a relatively better spring, summer
Though don't count out summer surge in the south
What happens further down the road hard to predict
And so, let's worry less about predicting
And focus on preparation
I don't know if/when next variant comes
Let's get ready
Fin
Though don't count out summer surge in the south
What happens further down the road hard to predict
And so, let's worry less about predicting
And focus on preparation
I don't know if/when next variant comes
Let's get ready
Fin
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