Trent Telenko Profile picture
Feb 6 8 tweets 9 min read
@spawnofKahn @donachaidh @John_Hudson @washingtonpost Before it was suppressed by Putin, the Russian "Gruz-200" group reported 12,100 confirmed Russian Army KIA/MIA in the Donbas in 2014-2015.

Ukraine MoD reported another 762 to 3438 irregulars KIA/MIA.

This was in artillery-heavy “medium intensity” war where WIA>KIA by 10 to 1 Image
@spawnofKahn @donachaidh @John_Hudson @washingtonpost What stopped Putin wasn't total losses. It was the losses in the Regime Security units.

The total manpower for the Russian VDV plus naval infantry, Tanman Guards, the MVD/FSB SWAT units, FSB/GRU Spetznaz, and Southern VO Motorized forces is roughly 50,000 over all.
2/
@spawnofKahn @donachaidh @John_Hudson @washingtonpost The Regime Security units were used as about 25% "stiffeners" for the a-- & trash on that Phillip Karber slide.

Doing the sums:

(12,862 KIA/MIA + 25,724 WIA) * 25% = 9,647 casualties, AKA 1/5th of the standing Russian REGIME SECURITY FORCES in Feb 2014.
3/
@spawnofKahn @donachaidh @John_Hudson @washingtonpost (15,538 KIA/MIA + 77,690 WIA) * 25% = 23,307 casualties, ~1/2 the standing Russian REGIME SECURITY FORCES in Feb 2014.

Summary: Putin stopped in 2014-2015 when the Regime Security Forces were rendered combat ineffective. The Ukrainians are aware of this Putin Regime dynamic
4/
@spawnofKahn @donachaidh @John_Hudson @washingtonpost The Clock on an all out Russian offensive is the depth of spares for the Russian Air Force versus the depth of Ukrainian SAM missile reserves.

Russia has maybe two weeks worth of high intensity operation spares for their entire 1400 something air fleet.
5/
@spawnofKahn @donachaidh @John_Hudson @washingtonpost After that the Russian sortie rate tubes and Ukrainian armored formations can move on large scale.

The Ukrainians have more SAM rounds per missile launcher than anywhere outside the Moscow Oblast.

And Russia's SEAD forces are very limited.
6/
@spawnofKahn @donachaidh @John_Hudson @washingtonpost The Ukrainians goal in the coming fighting is to slow Russian advances and suck them into city fighting and supply line of communications protection without losing large number of mobile forces so they can exploit the burn out of the Russian air fleet, thusly
/End ImageImage

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More from @TrentTelenko

Feb 28
People do not understand the implications of 55 "NATO surplus" Mig-29's arriving in Ukraine immediately mean.

The UAF cannot assimilate & use those Mig-29's that quickly without pilots and ground crew to go with them.

Unless this is NATO's version of Chennault's Flying Tigers.
Pres. Zelensky already has a program for immediately inducting any foreign soldier who wishes to fight for Ukraine.

You might have serving Polish, Slovakian and Bulgarian MiG drivers in the mix along with their ground crew.

2/
These MIG-29's have link 16 to listen to NATO E-3D.

Any Russian or Belarus aircraft over 50 meters altitude w/in 300 km of NATO borders is now a target.
3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 25
James Dunnican's Strategypage.com site had a very interesting analysis column that explains what Russian VDV descents on Ukrainian air bases ran into and the patterns of combat to date with Putin's five invasion axis's.

Thread

1/ Image
Excerpts from the column:

"Russian airborne forces managed to take an airport ten kilometers outside Kyiv. Efforts to use that airport to bring in additional troops were disrupted by the Ukrainian use...

strategypage.com/qnd/russia/art…

2/
...of Stinger portable anti-aircraft missiles as well as rifle and machine-gun fire at low flying aircraft. The airport was quickly attacked by a Ukrainian army rapid reaction force organized and trained for retaking key locations seized by Russian airborne forces.

3/
Read 15 tweets
Feb 25
The subject of this thread is the Russian VDV airhead at the Hostomel Airport just North of Kyiv and a rumor associated with same.

1/

Rumor with lots of 🧂🧂:

There is a rumor that the Ukrainians used a (or several?) Tochka-U SRBM to break VDV resistance at the airport near Kiev.

2/
There are horrid implications for Western Military power projection in this.

If true, the 82nd Airborne Division & 18th Corps are obsolete concept tactical unit far overdue to get its walking papers.

You can't paradrop anti-ballistic missile systems with a ready brigade.
3/
Read 10 tweets
Feb 18
@thinkdefence
@vcdgf555
@ELINTNews
@sentdefender
@Osinttechnical

The Russian military has turned the volume on their OTH-B radar to "11" -- AKA wartime frequency & power -- in an attempt to track stealth aircraft & drones.
1/ Image
This is a useful article in understanding Russian & Chinese OTH-B Radar deployments & capabilities.

idstch.com/geopolitics/ov…
This video from the previous article link is also useful regards Chinese OTH_B radar capabilities.

Read 4 tweets
Feb 15
The subject of this thread is "Commercial Open Source Military Radar Detection in Semi Real Time" courtesy of Bellingcat.

1/
bellingcat.com/resources/2022…
This is text from the beginning of the previous link:

The Radar Interference Tracker (RIT) is a new tool created by Ollie Ballinger that allows anyone to search for and potentially locate active military radar systems anywhere on earth.

Image- Sentinel-1 interference pattern
2/ Image
It turns out that the Sentinal-1 commercial synthetic aperture radar (SAR) signal frequency is interfered with by C-band radars like those used by Patriot, S-300P FLAP LID & successors, 5N62 SQUARE PAIR, in fact a good number of Russian acquisition and engagement radars.
3/ ImageImageImage
Read 18 tweets
Feb 4
@danieljleahy & @ww2tv had a crackerjack stream on Australian Stuart tanks at Sanananda New Guinea this morning. Someone in the chat asked how they go there.

This thread will address that question.
1/
So, lets talk about the Australian Operation Lilliput that ran freighter convoys from Milne Bay to Oro bay in 1942.

The route that was used in Dec 1942 was pioneered by the US Army Small Ship Service (USASS).
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation…
John Sheridan Fahnestock and Adam Bruce Fahnestock, friends with Pres. Roosevelt, originated the idea of a unit of small sailing ships to deliver supplies to Bataan, called “Mission X.”

It was a measure of the desperation of the time that MacArthur bit
2/
transportation.army.mil/history/docume…
Read 10 tweets

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