Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Feb 7 6 tweets 5 min read
1/4 - France (R-eff=0.78) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with high mortality.
122,720 cases and 294 deaths/day by Feb 13, if at same pace.
80.4% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 07 to Feb 10:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE
& @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Twelve mainland Régions have reached their peak of #COVID19 epid activ, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.79);
Brg-Frche-C=0.90;
Bret=0.90;
[Ctre-Val-L=0.86];
[Corse=0.93];
[Grd-Est=0.95]:
Hts-de-Fr=0.89;
Ile-de-Fr=0.74;
Norm=0.86;
Occit=0.93
P-de-L=0.85;
[PACA=0.83].
3/4 - Nouvelle-Aquitaine (R-eff=1.01) is reaching its peak of #COVID19 epidemic activity, with increasingly high mortality.
4/4 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Slow landing in Martinique=0.92, with high to medium mort.;
- Landing in [La Réunion (R-eff=0.82); Guadeloupe=0.70]; Guyane=0.54, with [very] high mortality;
Safe at Mayotte=0.35, with medium mortality.
5/4 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
6/4 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0

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More from @FLAHAULT

Feb 6
1/9 - Feb 06 to Feb 12 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, [very] high mortality: [IT (R-eff=0.79);SE];LUX;IRL;SP;FR;
- Plateauing, [low/med] high (very high) mort: [NO;ICL/CH];UK=0.99;DK=1.02;FL;BE;(PT;GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort: AT=1.11;
. Med-low mort: NL=1.09;DE=1.14.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Rise or surge in #COVID19 cases, [very] high mortality:
Czech=1.1; Eston=1.16;Russia=1.33;Slovk=1.28;Ukr=1.24 [Hung=1.07; Latv=1.19;Lith=1.19; Pol=1.06; Romn=1.14; Slovn=1.1];
- [Slowly] landing, alarming mortality:
[Bulg=0.92;Serb=0.96] Croat=0.88.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 6
1/4 - France (R-eff=0.80) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with high mortality.
135,624 cases and 295 deaths/day by Feb 12, if at same pace.
80.4% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 06 to Feb 09:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Twelve mainland Régions have reached their peak of #COVID19 epid activ, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.80);
Brg-Frche-C=0.92;
Bret=1.0;
[Ctre-Val-L=0.88];
[Corse=0.95];
[Grd-Est=0.96]:
Hts-de-Fr=0.92;
Ile-de-Fr=0.75;
Norm=0.90;
Occit=0.94
P-de-L=0.92;
[PACA=0.86].
3/4 - Nouvelle-Aquitaine (R-eff=1.02) is reaching its peak of #COVID19 epidemic activity, with increasingly high mortality.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 5
1/6 - “Depuis le début de la pandémie, les responsables politiques dans de nombreux pays se sont conduits comme si la vague qu’ils subissaient serait la dernière...”
atlantico.fr/article/decryp…
2/6 - “Cela remonte à la toute première vague, lorsque l’été 2020, la population européenne s’est remise rapidement à revivre comme avant.
Ce fut le cas après la deuxième vague, car le vaccin arrivait et allait changer la donne.”
3/6 - “La troisième vague en France n’a pas été anticipée, malgré les demandes répétées du Conseil Scientifique dès janvier de reprendre la main sur un plateau de contaminations qu’il trouvait trop élevé.”
Read 6 tweets
Feb 5
1/9 - Feb 05 to Feb 11 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, [very] high mortality: [IT (R-eff=0.80);SE];LUX;IRL;SP;FL;FR;
- Plateauing, [low/med] high (very high) mort: [ICL/CH];UK=0.99;DK=0.98;BE;(PT;GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort: AT=1.12;
. Med-low mort: NO;NL=1.11;DE=1.15.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Rise or surge in #COVID19 cases, very high mortality:
Czech=1.15; Eston=1.18; Hung=1.08; Latv=1.19;Lith=1.19; Pol=1.19; Romn=1.21; Russia=1.35;Slovk=1.29; Slovn=1.13;Ukr=1.26;
- Slowly landing, alarming mortality:
Bulg=0.93; Croat=0.92; Serb=0.98.
Read 11 tweets
Feb 5
1/5 - France (R-eff=0.82) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with high mortality.
156,639 cases and 305 deaths/day by Feb 11, if at same pace.
80.3% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 05 to Feb 08:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascienced
2/5 - Eleven mainland Régions reached their peak or are landing to their #COVID19 safe zones, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.84);
Brg-Frche-C=0.94;
Ctre-Val-L=0.94;
[Corse=0.96];
[Grd-Est=0.98]:
Hts-de-Fr=0.94;
Ile-de-Fr=0.76;
Norm=0.96;
Occit=0.95
P-de-L=0.99;
[PACA=0.88].
3/5 - Bretagne (R-eff=1.03) is close to reaching its #COVID19 safety zone, with increasing high mortality.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 4
1/9 - Feb 04 to Feb 10 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, [very] high mortality: [IT (R-eff=0.82)];IRL;SP;FL;FR;
- Plateau, [low/med] high (very high/alarming) mort: [ICL/CH];LUX;(UK=0.99;PT;SE/GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort: DK=1.09;AT;BE;
. Med-low mort: NO;NL;DE.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Increase in #COVID19 cases, very high mortality:
Czech=1.22; Eston=1.18; Hung=1.09; Latv=1.23;Lith=1.19; Pol=1.18; Romn=1.24; Russia=1.35;Slovk=1.33; Slovn=1.19;Ukr=1.28;
- Plateau or peak, alarming mortality:
Bulg=0.98; Croat=0.96; Serb=1.01.
Read 11 tweets

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