Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/4 - France (R-eff=0.78) is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone, with high mortality.
122,720 cases and 294 deaths/day by Feb 13, if at same pace.
80.4% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 07 to Feb 10:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE
& @SDSCdatascience

2/4 - Twelve mainland Régions have reached their peak of #COVID19 epid activ, with [very] high mort:
AURA (R-eff=0.79);
Brg-Frche-C=0.90;
Bret=0.90;
[Ctre-Val-L=0.86];
[Corse=0.93];
[Grd-Est=0.95]:
Hts-de-Fr=0.89;
Ile-de-Fr=0.74;
Norm=0.86;
Occit=0.93
P-de-L=0.85;
[PACA=0.83].

3/4 - Nouvelle-Aquitaine (R-eff=1.01) is reaching its peak of #COVID19 epidemic activity, with increasingly high mortality.

4/4 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Slow landing in Martinique=0.92, with high to medium mort.;
- Landing in [La Réunion (R-eff=0.82); Guadeloupe=0.70]; Guyane=0.54, with [very] high mortality;
Safe at Mayotte=0.35, with medium mortality.

5/4 - Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

6/4 - ... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0