Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Feb 04 to Feb 10 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Landing, [very] high mortality: [IT (R-eff=0.82)];IRL;SP;FL;FR;
- Plateau, [low/med] high (very high/alarming) mort: [ICL/CH];LUX;(UK=0.99;PT;SE/GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort: DK=1.09;AT;BE;
. Med-low mort: NO;NL;DE.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
- Increase in #COVID19 cases, very high mortality:
Czech=1.22; Eston=1.18; Hung=1.09; Latv=1.23;Lith=1.19; Pol=1.18; Romn=1.24; Russia=1.35;Slovk=1.33; Slovn=1.19;Ukr=1.28;
- Plateau or peak, alarming mortality:
Bulg=0.98; Croat=0.96; Serb=1.01.

4/9 - Africa -
Two #COVID19 profiles:
- Surging in Libya (R-eff=1.39), medium mortality;
- Plateauing in [Tunisia=1.04]; Botswana=0.96; [South Africa=0.92], with low [high] mortality.

5/9 - Middle-East
Three profiles:
- Landing towards their #COVID19 safety zones:
Qatar; Saudi-Arabia;UAE; low mort.
- Plateauing:
Israel (R-eff=0.97), alarming mortality, 78.6% received 1 dose;
- Increase:
Iran=1.56; Iraq=1.12; Jordan=1.28; Kuwait=1.09; Lebanon=1.08; Oman=1.2.

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Rising in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Malaysia (R-eff=1.16); with low mortality.
- Plateauing in Thailand=1.05, with low mortality;
- Landing in Mongolia; Philippines; Laos; [Kazakhstan]; Vietnam, with low [medium] mortality.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Rapid and worrying surge in #COVID19 epid activ, very low mortality:
New Zealand (R-eff=1.35); Japan=1.24; South Korea=1.34;
- Peak in Pakistan=1.02;
- Landing in [India]; Nepal; Australia, with [med] high mort.;
- Safe in: China=1.03;Taiwan=0.99.

8/9 - North America -
- Canada (R-eff=0.84) is landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, high mortality, 86.5% 1 dose. Red (R-eff>0.90) in NWT, Nun, NS, PEI, orange elswhere.
- USA=0.72 (76.1%) are landing, very high mortality, red in 7 states, orange in 43.

9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epidemic activity, [very] high mort.
Three profiles:
- Surging-rising: Brazil (R-eff=1.14); Chile=1.27;
- Plateauing: Mexico=0.98; [Uruguay=0.98];
- Landing: Bolivia; Cuba; [Argentina; Colombia; Peru].

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0