Share this page!

David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Twitter logo
Feb 7 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
With @AnnaGuildea @ecipe I have a new short paper on specialisation and comparative advantage as part of our New Globalization project. We show that developed countries still produce a wide range of goods and services - but specialise in complexity.

ecipe.org/publications/c…
@AnnaGuildea @ECIPE What we are really exploring is the idea that the EU, US, UK are increasingly vulnerable due to the rise of other countries, in particular China. The evidence for this remains slim - we may not make everything, but we hold the knowledge, and can trade. ecipe.org/publications/c…
It is part of our continuing work to show global trade has actually delivered, rather than being a failure to be corrected. As we have shown with other papers such as this on the response to the pandemic. Not perfect, but better than suggested alternatives ecipe.org/publications/g…
More folk around the EU should in particular be thinking about the cumulative impact of proposed measures which appear to threaten market closing. Perhaps the problems are less about trade and more about domestic policy choices?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with David Henig 🇺🇦

David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 8
New paper alert! On the vexed subject of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Quite simply it does not look like the right vehicle to resolve political disagreement between the UK and EU. We need a new approach, that builds on and takes inspiration from 1998.

ecipe.org/publications/f…
This is not going to be a comfortable message for either UK or EU, but what we have right now is in effect a zero-sum game, where either UK or EU single markets get to be protected. Northern Ireland becomes the venue as contested territory, too much for a fragile polity. 2/ Image
The Northern Ireland Protocol is a trade agreement. But without a shared political vision, the argument over medicines or SPS checks becomes political. It also becomes about identity, given the 1998 agreement allowed an ambiguity over being British or Irish. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 8
For some around the UK government, the initial point of joining the CPTPP was to use it to weaken UK food rules (particularly attractive to those being paid by US farm lobbies) as a US trade deal might be too controversial. politico.eu/article/canada…
Of course the UK government has long denied that it plans to weaken food laws. But it has also resisted a veterinary equivalence agreement with the EU which would make such weakening much more difficult. From which we can draw an obvious conclusion - this promise may be dropped.
Which is also interesting timing for another clash between House of Parliament committees and the government on the level scrutiny treaties receive. "far short of the European Parliament’s powers" as this article from @AlexanderHorne1 says prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/treat…
Read 9 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 2
A new phase in difficulties over the Northern Ireland protocol in which a DUP Stormont minister instructs his officials to stop enforcing an international treaty. Impossible to know what happens next, if these continue or not, or how the EU responds. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
As we can see from events in Russia / Ukraine, there is no enforcement power in international law if one party decides to breach treaties. However, we also know that it is normally the larger powers that have more scope for breach than smaller ones.
Expect a strong reaction from the US and the EU if the UK fails to enforce the Northern Ireland protocol. At a time when the US wishes to focus attention on Russia / Ukraine, such a move would not be seen in a positive light. (see e.g. Suez / Hungary)
Read 31 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 2
Supply chain problems are the modern economy. The fact the world only noticed them in 2020 doesn't make it a crisis now. We've had a pandemic in which the world has by and large continued to enjoy the goods it did beforehand. An incredible achievement. nytimes.com/2022/02/01/bus…
The question to ask is whether a different system of production and distribution would have delivered better results in response to a pandemic. Never say never, but there's no history of an alternative delivering in a better way.
The aftermath of a major shock, whether war or a pandemic, is a problematic time, as readjustment is needed. That's normal, it doesn't need some great panic around it. Not least from populist politicians liable to make things worse in their limited understanding.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 2
This bit is slightly interesting. Those of us who understood how modern regulation worked always said "absolute regulatory freedom" was a delusion. It can't be used, because a modern economy is interdependent with others. But that's not an acceptable message right now.
Slurring everyone who argued against the hardest possible Brexit as 'remoaners' effectively meant accepting an alternate reality in which pure UK regulatory control was Brexit and hugely beneficial, as opposed to the global reality of complex inter-dependencies.
For the UK to yield huge regulatory gains you have to assume that we can regulate better than other countries, that companies will choose us because of this, and then other countries will not compete. All of which are problematic. At best, we may get some limited gains.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 2
Lots of worthy stuff, but piecemeal devolution and funding competitions, plus lots of targets, makes Levelling Up feel like more of the same rather than anything particularly new.

Always easiest that way in government, but UK politics rather lacking in ideas right now.
Changing world, no great change in UK government thinking since 1997. Brexit as a distraction which doesn't solve many of our issues, and adds more. Treasury spending the main variable as various schemes come and go.
The UK muddling through, as the @DuncanWeldon book on our economic history has it. Still plenty of economic strengths, but uneven distribution of them a theme for many years, and there's honestly little in the levelling up plans seen so far to think that will change much.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @DavidHenigUK has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @DavidHenigUK!

Read all threads by @DavidHenigUK

:(