Thread by @DavidHenigUK

New paper alert! On the vexed subject of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Quite simply it does not look like the right vehicle to resolve political disagreement between the UK and EU. We need a new approach, that builds on and takes inspiration from 1998.

ecipe.org/publications/f…

This is not going to be a comfortable message for either UK or EU, but what we have right now is in effect a zero-sum game, where either UK or EU single markets get to be protected. Northern Ireland becomes the venue as contested territory, too much for a fragile polity. 2/

The Northern Ireland Protocol is a trade agreement. But without a shared political vision, the argument over medicines or SPS checks becomes political. It also becomes about identity, given the 1998 agreement allowed an ambiguity over being British or Irish. 3/

It is easy to blame EU or UK for the problematic nature of negotiations over Northern Ireland, and most of those involved do. I also have, frequently. But it doesn't actually get us anywhere if ultimately divisions deepen. Solutions become harder to find. Positions harden. 4/

We need a new political approach to issues around Northern Ireland and Brexit, that openly recognises and debates the issues. That's a lesson I take from the run up to the Good Friday Agreement, and the inspiration in particular of John Hume. Not pretend them away. 5/

Is it even possible to find a starting point on Northern Ireland and Brexit? Very difficult, without trust. I think it has to be a modified Protocol and accompanying political process which is markedly different to that in existence right now. And builds on the GFA/BA. 6/

Easy of course for the outsider to say what should happen to the Protocol - the EU thinks the UK just needs to implement what was agreed, and the UK that the EU just needs to drop the idea of checks. I just don't see either side 'winning', and therefore deepening problems. 7/

I was asked why a trade guy was seeking to change EU-UK politics over Northern Ireland, and that's simple. You're trying to use my subject - trade and regulations - to resolve political divisions, and it doesn't work.

So how about some political leadership? 8/

It is hard to be overly optimistic that we will soon find stability on issues relating to Northern Ireland and Brexit. Too much invested by those involved in their positions. I just hope there may be more reflection on where we're headed. 9/ end ecipe.org/publications/f…

Thanks for all the feedback so far on the Northern Ireland paper and tweets. Lot of scepticism about whether a new approach is possible - which I share. But chances are without it the political situation will worsen and then intervention will be required. So maybe start now?

A reminder that we are almost certainly heading to a deeper crisis in Northern Ireland after May's elections. In such circumstances the UK government might like to have some plans beyond repeating the same lines on the protocol. politico.eu/article/no-ret…