NEW: Here is our big story on US Congressional redistricting so far.
Nationally, Democrats have fared surprisingly well in the maps passed so far. But they are still biased toward Republicans — the median seat will be about one point to the right.
Much will depend on what happens in the 14 states that haven't passed new maps (or were told by courts to redraw them). Here is how one measure of fairness — the efficiency gap — has changed in each state (or, for states without final maps in the average plan under consideration)
A big story of the 2022 redistricting cycle is Democratic gerrymandering. But the data show Republicans are playing an entirely different game when it comes to packing and cracking partisans into seats. Nationwide, about 3% (8m) more Democratic votes are "wasted" than GOP votes.
The bright spot is in the four states with nonpartisan, independent redistricting commissions. There, the share of wasted votes across states declined by about 2.5 points after maps were redrawn. The efficiency gap *increased* by 3 points everywhere else economist.com/united-states/…
If you'd like more on this, the story (which is stuffed to the brim with data already) skips over some the stats and charts I've tweeted over the last week, including
.@baseballcrank, if you think Democrats and Republicans shouldn’t be doing partisan gerrymandering, there are plenty of proposals for reforms from the last ~decade that you + your mag wrote against that you might reread and find newly fruitful. Your hypocrisy here is my point
Am hearing more and more that Dems have gerrymandered their way to a balanced national House map. Will have more on this next week, but 2 points are (a) this ignores the role of litigation + independent commissions & (b) that there is still huge asymmetric bias at the state level
As a reference pt, states that Biden won by more than 5pts in 2020 had an efficiency gap of 5% under the old lines. Republicans rates had an average efficiency gap closer to 15 (2x the proposed threshold for litigation). After redistricting, Ds might be closer to 9, and Rs 14-15.
(Note, of course, that lots of maps aren't finalized yet so these calculations require some educated guesses, and numbers will change slightly)
This morning, @TheEconomist launches a polling model for the upcoming French presidential election. Polls there are pretty good, and Macron has a good chance of winning.
We have tried some new (and some old) things in communicating uncertainty to readers: economist.com/France2022
You can read an explanation of our methods (and see some cool additional charts) here:
The data are president-day pairs, so actually quite large from a raw n perspective -- the problem is that we have a limited data set to capture changing voter psychology (we have ~2.5 presidential terms of high partisanship)
the biden supporter version of january 6 is nancy pelosi kneeling while the cast of hamilton, sitting on the barrier of the gallery, yell-sings “history has its eyes on you” at kevin mccarthy
Here is my piece on our YouGov/Economist data showing a huge dropoff in support for Biden among young people. The decrease really is quite stunning: -50 points on net approval since January 26th (our first survey of his presidency).
The precise reason for the decline is hard to nail down. It's most likely that there's a confluence of factors that make Biden appear as not progressive enough for young adults (which is probably true?) that have driven down their views of him as the contrast vs Trump wanes
I do think the covid explanation is wrong.
For one thing, Biden's approval on how he's handling covid is higher than for any other issue.
But it also doesn't explain why young people, who are less impacted by covid, would be more affected attitudinally.