Thread by @JeffTownsend

Continuing excellent coverage of the #COVID19 pandemic—and the science of epidemiology—by @FoodieScience and @NPRinskeep.

npr.org/sections/goats…

's comments to @FoodieScience were based on our research estimating the durability of immunity to COVID-19 using comparative phylogenetics.

https://twitter.com/JeffTownsend/status/1445082321410039823?s=20&t=lyAZ090VIUkllLVt2pXBPg

In case anyone is keeping score, we applied comparative evolutionary approaches (long before reinfection was common) to predict the durability of immunity, and our predictions were SPOT ON.

thelancet.com/journals/lanmi…

's comparative evolutionary analysis predicted an 18% probability of reinfection at ~270 days; David Bean and @ManishSagar_MD's subsequent empirical finding was 18% reinfection by 275–300 days after primary infection.

academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…

's comparative evolutionary analysis predicted a 34% probability of reinfection at ~450 days; Sumit Malhotra et al.'s subsequent empirical finding was 34% reinfection by 420–480 days after primary infection.

jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…

's conclusion from the agreement between evolutionary prediction and empirical reinfection?

Science ROCKS!

Also, massive credit to #evolutionary #biology, which provided all the tools. It provides insight not just into our past, but also into our future.