RRH Elections Profile picture
Feb 7 β€’ 8 tweets β€’ 3 min read
🚨🚨🚨#BREAKING: By a 5–4 vote the Supreme Court halts a lower court order that required Alabama to redraw its congressional map. The new 6R-1D Alabama map will stand for this year.
rrhelections.com/index.php/2021…
The full Court opinion can be found hereπŸ‘‡
supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdf…
This means the soon to be passed least change Louisiana maps will also most likely withstand VRA challenges.
As we warned 2 weeks ago the worst case scenario for Democrats would be for SCOTUS to stay the Alabama decision & then order a full trial which could lead to SCOTUS undoing much of the VRA. That is exactly what is happening now.
Lots can happen between now and the Supreme Court's final decision in this case. But today's decision is ominous for Democrats. Kavanaugh, who is probably the swing vote in this case, wrote that current Section 2 law is "notoriously unclear and confusing"--joined by Alito!
Another ominous tea leaf is that Barrett, the most hesitant of the conservatives to grant relief on the shadow docket where a case does not merit full review, did not write separately, perhaps signaling that she also sees problems with the current VRA2 standards.
Roberts's dissent is somewhat surprising, as he's generally been quite conservative on redistricting matters. But he stressed that his objections to this stay were procedural, not substantive, and he wants to hear the case on the merits.
In sum, the signal from Kavanaugh and Alito and the silence of Barrett suggest that what started as an Alabama-only case may be the vehicle that turns Shelby County and Brnovich into a trilogy. If @marceelias loses this one next year, there may not be much left of Section 2.

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More from @RRHElections

Feb 7
The anger from GOP stems not from partisan gerrymandering but rather Democrats rigging anti-gerrymandering Commissions in states like NY, NJ, CA & MI to draw themselves gerrymandered maps & abusing the court systems they control to force Democrat favorable maps by judicial fiat.
Democrats drawing a comically ugly gerrymander in Illinois is unfortunate but fair play under IL law. Their complete disregard of the anti-gerrymandering laws in NY & a partisan court in NC abusing their power to force Dem friendly maps is an assault on our democratic process.
The rigging of the redistricting commission in NJ & Democrats sneaking Planned Parenthood donating Berkeley professors as "GOP" members of the California Commission is a disgrace.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 6
Bill de Blasio is a Park Slope Democrat. The 2 groups deBalsio is still popular with are Park Slope progressives & black voters. As luck would have it the majority of voters in a #NY11 Democratic primary will be from Park Slope & black voters on Staten Island's North Shore.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 5
Chief Justice Paul Newby's dissent in the NC #redistricting case is worth a read. Newby points out that today's decision contradicts the Democrat controlled court's 2019 ruling that they used to throw out NC's previous Congressional map & force a redraw 1/
politico.com/f/?id=0000017e…
In 2019 when the Democrat controlled NC Supreme Court sided with Democrats & forced a redrawing of NC Congressional map they ruled that "partisan consideration & election data shall not be used for drawing of legislative districts". Today's decision completely contradicts this.2/
Today the NC court ruled that "political fairness" & partisan consideration & election data must be used to achieve proportionality which is the exact opposite of what the court ruled 3 years ago in Common Cause v. Lewis when they sided with the Democrats! 3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 3
The Independent Redistricting system in New Jersey was completely rigged and the Democrat controlled New Jersey Supreme Court who played a key role in creating this entire farce plays Sgt Schultz at the end. A quick thread. 1/
From the start the Democrats decided to sandbag the New Jersey Independent Redistricting Commission by refusing to work with Republicans to select a compromise tie breaker. That allowed the NJ Supreme court to pick the tie breaker for the 1st time ever. 2/
newjerseyglobe.com/congress/n-j-s…
The NJ Supreme Court picked 79-year-old fmr Supreme Court Justice John Wallace (D) who now works for law firm representing Democrat party boss George Norcross as the "independent" breaker. Wallace was neither independent nor qualified for the job. 3/
newjerseyglobe.com/redistricing/d…
Read 9 tweets
Jan 20
Let's do a quick thread on #FL5, the most litigated district in the history of Election Twitter! We'll try to give some context to what @RonDeSantisFL is likely getting at when he argues the district--and thus the map that passed the Florida Senate today--is illegal. 1/x
#FL5, like most of America's ugliest racial gerrymanders, has its roots in the '92 redistricting cycle. The Bush 41 DOJ took a then-prevailing, but since-discredited, view of the VRA that required states to aggressively gerrymander to maximize the Black population in VRA seats 2/
The Bush DOJ pressured Southern states--mostly still run by Democrats--to break up 35-40% Black seats that were Black enough to elect a D, but white enough to ensure that D was white. This led to significant opportunity for Black D's and white R's at the expense of white D's. 3/
Read 31 tweets
Oct 24, 2021
How ugly a gerrymander is the Democrat's new proposed Illinois Congressional map? Take a look at the monstrosity that is their #IL15. It stretches over 6 different media markets to pack every Republican they can into 68.5% GOP district & literally cuts a Dem CD out of its center.
#IL13 is the snake district the Democrats literally cut out of the center of #IL15 stretches from the St Louis suburbs to Champaign to create a 54D-43R seat Democrats should win easily. From a geographical, compactness & COI point of view it is a disgrace.
#IL17 is another beaut of a geographical mess. It connects Rock Island to Bloomington to East Dubuque to Rockford to create a 53D-44R seat.
Read 9 tweets

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