π¨π¨π¨#BREAKING: By a 5β4 vote the Supreme Court halts a lower court order that required Alabama to redraw its congressional map. The new 6R-1D Alabama map will stand for this year.
rrhelections.com/index.php/2021β¦
rrhelections.com/index.php/2021β¦
The full Court opinion can be found hereπ
supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdfβ¦
supremecourt.gov/opinions/21pdfβ¦
This means the soon to be passed least change Louisiana maps will also most likely withstand VRA challenges.
https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1489725217517842434?s=20&t=j78H5RVcMC88V61c39KEjg
As we warned 2 weeks ago the worst case scenario for Democrats would be for SCOTUS to stay the Alabama decision & then order a full trial which could lead to SCOTUS undoing much of the VRA. That is exactly what is happening now.
https://twitter.com/RRHElections/status/1486126384896434181?s=20&t=9GGJguKFFw_0TXESgddYPA
Lots can happen between now and the Supreme Court's final decision in this case. But today's decision is ominous for Democrats. Kavanaugh, who is probably the swing vote in this case, wrote that current Section 2 law is "notoriously unclear and confusing"--joined by Alito!
Another ominous tea leaf is that Barrett, the most hesitant of the conservatives to grant relief on the shadow docket where a case does not merit full review, did not write separately, perhaps signaling that she also sees problems with the current VRA2 standards.
Roberts's dissent is somewhat surprising, as he's generally been quite conservative on redistricting matters. But he stressed that his objections to this stay were procedural, not substantive, and he wants to hear the case on the merits.
In sum, the signal from Kavanaugh and Alito and the silence of Barrett suggest that what started as an Alabama-only case may be the vehicle that turns Shelby County and Brnovich into a trilogy. If @marceelias loses this one next year, there may not be much left of Section 2.
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