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Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

Jun 12, 2023

I just read Binance's formal response to the SEC's lawsuit, so you don't have to.

Here are the key arguments they submitted to the courts today.

It's an embarrassingly weak defense... [thread]

The primary framing of the document, and the primary argument for the court to deny the SEC its request for a temporary restraining order (TRO) to halt Binance activities is...

"Why now?"

That's the best Binance has...

The first assertion that Binance's lawyers make is that the SEC has no right to ask the courts to interject.

Which seems a little comical, as the SEC's mandate is to enforce securities law and they believe Binance has flouted those laws.

Kinda the SEC's whole thing...

Read 7 tweets

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

Jun 1, 2023

In the 2019 bear market bottom, I got caught on the sidelines waiting to buy #Bitcoin lower. I listened to on-chain gurus and their favorite metrics.

Learn from my mistakes. Thread on:

- Which Bitcoin price metrics have value & why
- Where we are in the Bitcoin market cycle

After 6 years full-time learning, I believe there’s 3 reliable price drivers:

1. Bitcoin’s halvings (increasing scarcity over time)
2. Human psychology amplifying volatility in the wake of the halvings
3. Macroeconomic conditions (e.g. QT/QE)

#1 + #2 create this dynamic:

Everything else is reading tea leaves, retroactively finding spurious patterns, or downstream of the above 3 drivers.

But these downstream indicators are useful. Some quantify and capture human psychology in action.

Here are 3 worth knowing...

Read 7 tweets

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

May 28, 2023

Politicians have reached a deal to raise the US debt ceiling.

This will lift the prohibition on adding to the US National Debt for the next 2 years.

This greenlit deficit spending also ensures the continued erosion of the US fiscal standing.

Here's how...

The debt ceiling deal was brokered between US House Speaker McCarthy (R) and President Biden (D). The deal is expected to be voted on by Congress this Wednesday.

The core agreement is that the self-imposed "debt ceiling" would be lifted for 2 years, through the 2024 election.

In exchange, Dems would agree to freeze spending at current levels through that 2 year time period.

However, current spending is on track for $2.2T-$2.9T in deficit spending.

And this is why the debt ceiling HAD to be lifted - the deficit spending was already in flight.

Read 6 tweets

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

May 8, 2023

The next #Bitcoin halving is in less than a year.

My base case: the 2024 halving could send Bitcoin's price 4-8x higher.

Here's what you need to know... (Thread 👇)

This is Bitcoin's issuance schedule.

The day Bitcoin launched in Jan 2009... there were 0 Bitcoin in existence. Eventually, there will be a hardcapped, absolute maximum of 21M Bitcoin.

Coins are issued with each new block "mined"

This "block subsidy" decreases every 4 years

These moments in time when Bitcoin issuance decreases by 50% are "halvings"

This is written in stone in the Bitcoin protocol and can never be changed.

Here is the relevant bit of code - Bitcoin's entire monetary policy.

Read 9 tweets

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

May 2, 2023

First Republic Bank's collapse - everything you need to know in 8 simple tweets. (A thread.)

#1 - This is the 2nd biggest bank failure in US history.

2023 has seen 3 out of 4 of the biggest bank failures ever... and it's only May.

@stackhodler

#2 - First Republic was the 14th largest bank in the United States.

Like every bank, they've been dealing with:
a) large unrealized losses on underwater long-dated bonds they bought when rates were ~0%, and
b) an exodus of deposits to MMFs

h/t @stackhodler and Bankrate

@samcallah

#3 - In March, a group of the largest US banks (led by JPMorgan) injected $30B of deposits into First Republic.

This halted fears of insolvency... and it bought the bank time.

h/t @samcallah for pointing out FHLB use

Read 10 tweets

Jesse Myers (Croesus 🔴)

@Croesus_BTC

Apr 19, 2023

Here are the 7 most important charts to understand the United States' fiscal position...

...and why we are heading towards a debt-spiral black hole.

#1 - Here is the annual budget Surplus or Deficit through 2022.

#2 - The problem with deficits is that they add up. Each annual deficit adds to the total National Debt.

This debt hole grows bigger because of annual interest expense on all this debt.

Not a problem when interest rates are ~0%. Big problem when they're 5% per year (now).

#3 - We could reverse this trend if the US Gov could just spend less than it brings in via tax revenue.

But this hasn't happened in 22 years.

There is no political will to balance the budget. That's why these deficits are the norm. Here's 2022:

Read 11 tweets

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