Thread by @PalmerReport

The Matt Gaetz probe is a good guidepost for how this DOJ operates. It’s painstakingly flipped three inside witnesses against him – nearly guaranteeing a conviction. But it still hasn’t even publicly acknowledged the Gaetz probe exists, and likely won’t until he’s indicted.

The existence of the Gaetz probe only became public knowledge when Gaetz himself decided to go public about it, after someone in his life allegedly tried to extort him over it. If Gaetz hadn’t done this, we might still not know he’s under DOJ investigation.

When Greenberg cut a deal, his lawyer told the media he was cooperating against Gaetz. When Ellicott cut a deal, his lawyer did the same. It’s not clear who leaked the ex girlfriend testifying and getting immunity. But none of this appears to have come from the DOJ itself.

The only thing that appears to have come from the DOJ was last summer, when ABC News was tipped off that the DOJ was targeting July for a Gaetz indictment. When that didn’t happen, followup leaks said Greenberg had provided too much evidence and more time was needed to probe it.

So during the entire Gaetz probe, the only thing we’ve heard out of the DOJ is that maybe it tipped off the media when it thought it was within weeks of indicting Gaetz. So maybe it’ll tip off the media again once it really is within weeks of indicting him.

But short of that, the DOJ hasn’t told the public anything about the Gaetz case, and apparently wouldn’t even have told the public that the case existed. If that’s Garland DOJ protocol, then most of Trump would could be under DOJ investigation and we wouldn’t know it.

Case in point: we didn’t know the Garland DOJ had been probing Giuliani until it raided his home. We didn’t know the DOJ had been probing Barrack until it arrested him. We didn’t know the DOJ had been probing Gaetz until Gaetz went public about it. And so on.

The doomsday pundits insisted that if the DOJ were targeting Trump, we’d know about it, because breadcrumbs would emerge. But look how deep these other DOJ probes into Trump world got without the public knowing they existed.

For that matter, there now ARE breadcrumbs suggesting the DOJ is building a criminal case against Trump. For instance the DOJ has reportedly had numerous Capitol attackers formally attest, as part of their guilty pleas, that Trump incited them to do it.

The ONLY reason to do this is to have it in place so it can be used in a potential criminal case against Trump. This development alone at least proves that they haven’t decided NOT to charge Trump.

Of course all the same pundits who said ‘there can’t be a DOJ probe into Trump or breadcrumbs would be emerging’ are now conveniently ignoring these breadcrumbs now that they’re emerging, but that’s another story.

The Garland DOJ clearly works on its high level criminal probes very stealthily, takes as much time as it feels it needs to build a case that just about guarantees conviction, and doesn’t even tell the public such cases exist until they’re complete or nearly complete.

So there is no basis whatsoever for presuming that Trump, or anyone in Trump world, isn’t under DOJ investigation.

There is some evidence suggesting that Trump is under DOJ investigation.

And everything else is just pundits trying to come off as “tougher” than Merrick Garland.

Merrick Garland himself used his January 6th anniversary address to announce that the DOJ is taking its 1/6 probe all the way to the top. He knew some would interpret that to mean Trump. Why would Garland publicly stake himself to that unless the DOJ is already going there?

But again, using the Gaetz case as an example, the DOJ took the time to flip three key insiders against him, and it’s still not quite done with the case. So if the DOJ is targeting Trump, it would presumably want to flip insiders against him as well. Giuliani? Bannon? Meadows?

As hard as it is to imagine that the DOJ isn’t targeting Trump, it would be just as hard to imagine that the DOJ would be willing to indict Trump without flipping key insiders against him first. So this is probably the biggest thing to watch for.

Why has the DOJ taken seven weeks and counting to indict Meadows for contempt? Is it because Meadows has flipped on Trump? No specific evidence of this. But Meadows already (briefly) flipped on Trump once. If the DOJ told him he’s facing numerous charges, maybe he flipped again.

Given that Giuliani is still actively fighting the DOJ in court over the criminal case against him, it’s clear that he has not flipped (unless he’s done it very recently).

But these are the kinds of things you want to watch for, as far as the DOJ being able to nail Trump.

Even for the DOJ to nail Trump for taking classified documents with him when he left office, it would need evidence or testimony that he KNEW they were classified, and didn’t just mistakenly pick up the wrong papers off his desk. So this also comes back to cooperating witnesses.

Just because we all know Trump committed all these various crimes, and just because he’s confessed to some of them or committed them in plain sight, that’s not the same standard as proving to a trial jury that Trump is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

The DOJ can’t just round up Trump tomorrow and then hope it draws a favorable jury at trial. What if the judge throws out some of the evidence? It’s why you need a mountain of evidence, multiple inside witnesses, and so on. It’s why DOJ cases take so damn long to build.

You don’t have to agree with the DOJ’s secrecy or timeline on these kinds of matters. But you can’t decide the DOJ is doing “nothing” just because you don’t agree with its secrecy or timeline. Was the DOJ doing “nothing” while it busted three people close to Gaetz? Of course not.

Not sure what’s worse, the Trump fans replying and insisting he’ll get away with it no matter what, or the pathetic defeatist losers on our side replying any saying the exact same thing. Both groups are wastes of oxygen. Defeatists are traitors.

And as for those folks on our side who WANT our side to lose, just so they have an excuse to yell angry defeatist things because their entire life is about feeling pure rage, those folks belong in a mental institution. They’re a danger to themself and others.

Such a high percentage of people on our side are untreated mental patients who WANT to lose, it’s amazing we ever win anything at all.

It’s a real testament to those of you on our side who aren’t psychotic losers, and actually try to fight and win political battles.