John Roberts Profile picture
Feb 10 5 tweets 2 min read
Latest data on England beds occupied with COVID show that the proportion where COVID is regarded as the primary diagnosis has stabilised over the last couple of weeks at just under 50%.

Remember that doesn't mean none of the others weren't in some way triggered by COVID.
1/
There's quite a divergence by region though, with London the lowest at around a third, up to the SW (where admissions have been stubbornly level of late) the highest at just under two thirds.

2/
Overall, the number in acute hospitals where COVID is the primary diagnosis has fallen this week by 11%, and now stands at 5,110. That's 40% down on the peak of 8,582, reached exactly a month ago today.

3/
The usual caveat that the assessment is on a best endeavours basis based on the judgement of those treating the patient. And again, COVID is likely to have been a contributory factor for some of the others, eg heart attacks and strokes, as described here.

4/
And even if COVID is completely incidental, the need to segregate patients with COVID to avoid cross infection and the additional precautions needed, adds to the complexity of dealing with patients and results in a reduced capacity.

5/5

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More from @john_actuary

Feb 11
A few salient points from the latest SAGE minutes published this afternoon:-

Current behaviour is estimated to be suppressing transmission by between 20% & 45%. (That would suggest a complete return to pre-pandemic behaviour would increase transmission by between 25% & 80%.)
1/ Image
It notes the benefit to transmission of "self regulation" of behaviour and the risks if reduced testing is available (and later comments on impact of charging for tests, particularly for those who are or living with CV people).

2/ Image
It notes that the next variant might not be as mild as Omicron appears to be, and could emerge very quickly. The benefit of the ONS infection survey in monitoring for such an event is noted.

3/ ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Feb 9
The latest advance infection survey data from the ONS shows increases in 3 of the 4 countries.
E🔼from 4.8% to 5.2%
W🔽from 4.6% to 4.0%
NI🔼from 7.4% to 7.9%
S🔼from 3.5% to 4.0%

Overall 3.3m are estimated to have been positive in the week ending 5th Feb. Image
There's still a relatively tight spread of variation by region. However it's noticeable that the 3 regions (SE,SW,E) that recently saw modest growth in admissions (in contrast to the others) are outliers with a significant % growth (around 40%) over the last two weeks.

2/ Image
By age the youngest group appears now to have peaked but is still exceptionally high, and there is still steady growth in the Yr 7 to 11 band too.

Above age 50, levels are much lower but have increased this week, eg 70+ from 2.0% to 2.5%.

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 30
Jamie's wording here is aimed at making you think that the pandemic has triggered a huge increase in psychiatric/suicide related call-outs in Wales.

The graph below is correct, but let's take a closer look...

1/
Actually you don't need to take that close a look to see that there's something odd with the data. Only 1 case in 2017, rising to 28 in 2019 - all before the pandemic.

So it looks like there are data quality issues here. A change in reporting method maybe?

2/
Let's look at a monthly analysis next - I've helpfully split out the period before any restrictions started, and you can see that the big increase was all prior to the pandemic taking hold.

It looks like a reporting change happened in late 19 - so nothing to do with COVID.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Jan 29
The BBC becomes the latest organisation to debunk the false claims that only 17,000 died of the virus, widely shared by @DavidDavisMP. He's specifically mentioned in this piece as sharing the offending video.

1/
bbc.co.uk/news/60145237
That follows the ONS rebutting the claim firmly here in a blog. But it doesn't stop there...

2/
No less than the Office for Statistics Regulation has weighed in too - it really is remarkable how many trusted bodies are having to refute the misinformation that @DavidDavisMP has shared.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jan 28
Some (very) early evidence that secondary attack rates of BA.2 are higher in household settings than those of its older sibling.

From the latest Variant TB 35.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

1/
Fortunately there's no evidence yet that BA.2 has a greater propensity for vaccine escape. Indeed, there's a possibility it's slightly less able in that regard, though not statistically robust yet.

2/
You can see BA.2 start to nibble away at BA.1's dominant position here in the bottom right hand corner. Note because of sequencing time, this cuts off around 10 days ago.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jan 27
The latest Vaccine Surveillance Report now extends efficacy data out to 15 weeks, and shows a continued fall in booster efficacy against symptomatic disease, particularly where AZ was the primary course (below).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1/
mRNA throughout the course and booster appears a smidge better, particularly where Moderna was used for the booster, (although Moderna data doesn't extend to 15+ weeks yet).

2/
Efficacy against hospitalisation where AZ is the primary course dips to below 80% in the 10-14 week period, against 90% at the outset (ie the efficacy gap has doubled over that period).

3/
Read 7 tweets

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