Based on signals, I'm worried Putin's attack may come out of Donbas in the next couple of days. Whenever it comes, I expect it to be major but small enough for Western appeasers to say it doesn't qualify as the invasion they warned him against.
Putin is good at reading his opponents and taking the measure of their cowardice. He cannot afford to lose a major confrontation, so he advances on the edges so they can save face while doing nothing.
The greatest danger of not standing up against small provocations, as I've always warned, is that eventually many successes lead to overconfidence and the dictator losing that sense of danger and overstepping into a major conflict.
If Putin attacks, the response must be instant, united, & overwhelming. He is counting on dragged out debate leading to the world treating it like a fait accompli, like Crimea. It's what I called "doing nothing until you can claim there's nothing you can do."
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
