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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Feb 10, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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#NZ #ExtremeWeather Update thread:

The latest JTWC update has Cyclone Dovi strengthening to 96 knots of sustained winds, putting it on the threshold of Category 3 Hurricane Strength.
While #CycloneDOVI is very unlikely to maintain anything close to this all the way to NZ, this is not good news for the Nth Island in rain/flooding terms.

[Image: 24 hour satellite animation of #Dovi featuring New Caledonian radar data showing an intense well formed eyewall.]
Outflow of moisture - an atmospheric river - generated by #CycloneDovi is already delivering intense rains in NZ in a band which is steadily moving northwards.

A strengthening #Dovi will increase the amount of moisture in this river.
Forecasting cyclone intensity is something of an art and the JTWC tends to be conservative in its projections. So the forecast of intensification to close to Cat 3 Hurricane intensity is a little alarming.
We can find out more looking at intensity modelling, which as you can see here is somewhat experimental >> cyclocane.com/dovi-spaghetti…
The other method of determining the strengthening or weakening path of cyclones is expert observation of the satellite presentation of the storm which is also what the JTWC peeps do. This account is worth following for a 2nd opinion.
From a model perspective there is now a very high level of simulation model agreement on the path and velocity of this cyclone which is expected to speed up significantly over the next 24 hours and cross NZ fairly quickly.
Latest model simulations are fairly consistent, the center of Cyclone #Dovi is expected to approach the West Coast on Sunday evening and the humid air associated with the cyclone should clear NZ altogether by Monday afternoon.
Finally, at present the GFS and ECMWF models are very much in alignment on where they think the rain is likely to accumulate, and how much is expected.

Taranaki currently looks like it is in the eye of the storm.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.

open.spotify.com/episode/3YV0SU…
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
Read 13 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:

1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media.
2. This is not going to change any time soon.
thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.

This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 22
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.

All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.Image
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Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.

I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.Image
Image
But the this bit is weird.

The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.

I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.
Read 15 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 12
This interview with working class Uk financial markets savant Gary Stevenson - who has just published an autobiography - is seriously terrifying. He now has a @YouTube channel it seems and I’ll post a link shortly.

James O'Brien meets Gary Stevenson | LBC via @YouTube
His prognosis for the collapse of social democratic nation state finances due to the very sharp rise in income distribution inequality in the UK is horrific.

The consequences of unfettered transfers of money over decades due to neoliberal economics initially and more recently quantitative easing driven transfers of wealth from the middle class to the top 5% of the population is the cause of his concern.

It’s very hard to imagine what can be done politically to rebalance this.

Thomas Piketty’s thesis which among other things warned about all of this based on long term historical analysis of wealth inequality appears to be colliding with Western Civilisation in a manner that threatens the very foundations of that civilisation.
Gary’s YouTube channel which addresses all this is here.

Understand The Economy via @YouTubeyoutube.com/playlist?list=…
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 9
Well this was actually pretty good… very little crazy right wing stuff - none in fact - some light criticism of wokeness and a consensus that Hitler was a socialist or communist dictator not a rightwing liberal fascist - mercifully no discussion of Greenland Panama or Canada

The bit at the end was actually quite nice and agreement about ending the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Importantly and probably deliberately there was very little to zero overt electioneering - a little bit of criticism of Weidel’s Spitzencandidat competition from Weidle but nothing extreme.

So nothing imo that could be seen as being election interference IMO - nor any reason for the DSA to be concerned or to get involved.

I didn’t even hear any particularly overt endorsement that went beyond that you might hear in passing in a podcast interview.

It ended with a discussion of mars - Elon’s favourite subject of conversation - which was quite interesting including a reference to the Hitchhikers guide to the Galaxy series and Douglas Adams.
From Weidel’s point of view though there was a lot of positive moderate exposure of her party and probably around 200k + listeners. Which may give her a bounce in the polls.

Also the final segment talking about space was quite delightful and genuine and portrayed the AFD Leader in a positive light.

And I’d say the two of them have both found a new friend.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 8
Comedians vs Trump and Elon /1

Trump Ratchets Up Call to Annex Canada & Greenland as Trudeau Says He'll... via @YouTube
Comedians vs Trump & Elon /2
Zuck, Meta fact checking, McDonald’s, and Amazon Cozy Up To Trump, Dropping Fact-Checkers & their integrity. via @YouTube
@YouTube Comedians vs Trump & Elon /3

SETH Meyers - Trump's Insane Press Conference About Greenland, Jack Smith, Gulf of Mex... via @YouTube
Read 6 tweets

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