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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
@althecat
Feb 10, 2022 • 9 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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#NZ #ExtremeWeather Update thread:

The latest JTWC update has Cyclone Dovi strengthening to 96 knots of sustained winds, putting it on the threshold of Category 3 Hurricane Strength.
While #CycloneDOVI is very unlikely to maintain anything close to this all the way to NZ, this is not good news for the Nth Island in rain/flooding terms.

[Image: 24 hour satellite animation of #Dovi featuring New Caledonian radar data showing an intense well formed eyewall.]
Outflow of moisture - an atmospheric river - generated by #CycloneDovi is already delivering intense rains in NZ in a band which is steadily moving northwards.

A strengthening #Dovi will increase the amount of moisture in this river.
Forecasting cyclone intensity is something of an art and the JTWC tends to be conservative in its projections. So the forecast of intensification to close to Cat 3 Hurricane intensity is a little alarming.
We can find out more looking at intensity modelling, which as you can see here is somewhat experimental >> cyclocane.com/dovi-spaghetti…
The other method of determining the strengthening or weakening path of cyclones is expert observation of the satellite presentation of the storm which is also what the JTWC peeps do. This account is worth following for a 2nd opinion.
From a model perspective there is now a very high level of simulation model agreement on the path and velocity of this cyclone which is expected to speed up significantly over the next 24 hours and cross NZ fairly quickly.
Latest model simulations are fairly consistent, the center of Cyclone #Dovi is expected to approach the West Coast on Sunday evening and the humid air associated with the cyclone should clear NZ altogether by Monday afternoon.
Finally, at present the GFS and ECMWF models are very much in alignment on where they think the rain is likely to accumulate, and how much is expected.

Taranaki currently looks like it is in the eye of the storm.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Aug 10
Netanyahu has proposed a pathway to end the war in Gaza under pressure primarily from the U.S. UK, France & Germany. Spain and Ireland and several other European nations & the European Commission.

LIVE: PM Netanyahu Holds a Press conference youtube.com/live/1ebXvF9MO…
The @israelipm sounds defeated. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The deal being offered to Gaza is far from perfect but it sounds workable in Netanyahus outline.
@IsraeliPM Whether it will be approved by Hamas however is unclear and rather complicated - as it’s unclear who inside Gaza would be in a position to respond to the offer. Many of Hamas’s fighters may prefer to die as martyrs also than to agree to any deal.
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 25
Guess who has the most to lose if/when @realDonaldTrump discovers he’s now a lame duck President.

He is now so deep under water both in polling and with his base that it’s very hard to imagine him bouncing back.
I’ll answer my question shortly buts it’s well worth pondering…. In the meantime consider this.

Trump is now a laughing stock. And not only is everyone in America now laughing at him. But he has also been abandoned by his base and his party.
The bonfire of vanity that belongs to Donald Trump is iridescent, a signal to the world that his presidency has ended before it even started.
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 25
This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.

open.spotify.com/episode/3YV0SU…
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
Read 13 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jul 2
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:

1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media.
2. This is not going to change any time soon.
thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.

This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Read 5 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
Jan 22
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.

All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.Image
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Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.

I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.Image
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But the this bit is weird.

The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.

I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.
Read 15 tweets

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