Thread by @Aaron_Derfel

1) As countries around the world rush to lift public health protections in the #pandemic, it’s instructive to check out what's happening now in areas that were first hit by the super contagious Omicron variant: South Africa and Denmark. Are they much better off? The answer is no.

2) On Dec. 30, the government of South Africa declared its #Omicron-fuelled wave officially over and proceeded to ease restrictions, including eliminating a nighttime curfew. The country was first buffeted by the supposedly mild variant in mid-November. How is it doing today?

3) It’s true #COVID deaths in South Africa peaked on Jan. 24 and then plunged soon afterward. But the mortality wave has since rebounded, as the chart below by Our World in Data reveals. Epidemiologically, the most reliable indicator of the severity of the pandemic are deaths.

4) Despite the increase in deaths – with South Africa declaring 213 on Thursday, up from a tally of 48 four days earlier – the #pandemic has vanished from the front pages of that nation’s newspapers. South Africa also doesn’t make public its statistics on #COVID hospitalizations.

5) Meanwhile, Denmark is not reporting any let-up in #COVID deaths, either, but to the contrary, a steady increase, as the chart below by Our World In Data indicates. Denmark started observing a surge in Omicron cases in early December, with much of the world watching it closely.

6) Since then, #COVID hospitalizations in Denmark have also been ticking upwards despite the highest booster vaccination rate by far in Europe. Please take a look at the hospitalizations chart below by Our World in Data.

7) Yet Denmark is getting rid of public health protections, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen saying her country wants to return "to life as we knew it before corona." Part of the justification was a decrease in ICU stays. But look: since last week ICU stays stopped dropping.

8) What’s more, positive #COVID screening results reached a record level in Denmark two days ago, with the country registering a testing positivity rate of just under 32%, which is the highest observed during the entire pandemic, according to broadcaster DR.

9) Although Denmark continues to test widely for COVID, other nations – including Canada – have stopped doing so. In the province of Québec, for example, as a result of less testing, the COVID case rate is no longer considered a reliable indicator of the severity of the pandemic.

10) Moreover, although Quebec's COVID hospitalizations have dropped sharply, this comes after a new policy a month ago of transferring patients prematurely back to long-term care so as not to overwhelm hospitals. Indirectly, this has contributed to lowering the official tally.

11) But in Québec, #COVID deaths remain stubbornly high, almost following the recent trend in South Africa. Québec’s latest seven-day mortality average is 35, compared with 32 during its supposedly more virulent #Delta-driven wave last winter. Please review the chart below.

12) Increasingly, our electorally-obsessed politicians tell us we've reached the point where we must “live with the virus.” By that, do they mean live with more #COVID deaths than a year ago, not to mention the proliferation of long COVID? End of thread.

https://twitter.com/Aaron_Derfel/status/1491245592244547588

13) ADDENDUM: Montreal’s Jewish General Hospital, considered one of the most efficient in the city, reported an emergency-room occupancy rate of 196% (!) on Thursday afternoon, the highest in the city, possibly an ominous sign in the #pandemic.