Things are about to get reel interesting in the Salmon World.🐟
European inventories are depleted, demand keeps increasing, and supply is contracting. We're up ~40% from the start of the year, and prices have hit 100NOK in China!
"The salmon price is speeding away - towards the highest level of all time"
"Faroe islands, Scotland, Chille, Norway - they all have shortages. It is a perfect storm". <-Music to my ears.
They're all up 10%, 15%, 20% over the past month:
👊Mowi $MOWI
👊Bakkafrost $BAKKA
👊Leroy $0GM2
👊SalMar $SALM
Six months ago, inventories were looking really weak. A company needs around ~10% of biomass as inventory (working capital).
Coming out of European summer, inventories should have been peaking - while typically in Aus they should be low like Huons.
Trade data for 🇦🇺shows volume is up 100% and revenue is up 200% for salmon exports 1H21 vs 1H22
A very large portion of this is going to be from Tassal's because no-one else in Aus has inventory. Petuna's fish have boiled and Huon emptied their freezers prior to the takeover.🤷
Tassal $TGR half yearly report is out on Tuesday 15th of Feb. 🔖
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2. The three components of my investment thesis
✅Cyclical (salmon) – peaking now but expecting to stay elevated
✅FCF conversion (prawns) – on track as CAPEX reduces
✅Valuation – remains cheap relative to peers
The global water and wastewater industry was worth US$260bn in 2020, growing at a healthy 7% CAGR. Australian technology is well positioned to benefit, but are Australian companies?
Let’s take a look at Fluence $FLC $FLC.AX
Phoslock $PET $PET.AX and Calix $CXL $CXL.AX 👇
1. Tl;dr – De.mem $DEM $DEM.AX is still my #1 pick. The sector passes my baked beans hurdle (growing +4% CAGR), and De.mem have a good business model. Just not sure on their operating leverage?
You can check out the most recent deep dive here:👇
2. Fluence $FLC $FLC.AX builds decentralized water treatment plants around the world. With over 300 projects under its belt, it has a proven track record in delivering.
Food security and fertilizers are back in the media again for all the wrong reasons. Farmers on tik-tok say the world is about to end, and fertilizer prices are going bananas. So what’s the play on the ASX?
Let’s take a deep dive. 👇
1. Food security as a megatrend is driven by population and wealth increases with limited resources.
I look to invest in:
1⃣Owning primary factors of production (food, water)
2⃣Owning low-cost food producers
3⃣Ag Tech companies, or
4⃣Commodity inputs like Fertilizers
2. Fertilizers are the primary nutrients that spur plant growth necessary for crop production and livestock (e.g. feed and hay).
There are three chemical compounds each with their own market:
🌱Nitrogen
🌿Phoshporous
🌳Potasium
Angel Seafood $AS1 $AS1.AX is the largest oyster producer in Coffin Bay, making news for all the wrong reasons. A real microcap seeking to build scale, is now the time to swim against the tide? 🦪
Let’s take a deep dive. 👇
1. Investment thesis: Fast Grower.
✅Strong market for oysters
✅Revenue ramping up
✅CAPEX pulling back
✅Biomass in place for scaling
✅Skin in the game
🚨Food poisoning / sales suspension
2. Recently I looked at East 33 $E33 as an oyster play – sorry folks, it was a ruse!
That was my competitor research on Angel, which has taken a lot longer to get my head around due to the lack of information available.
East 33 $E33 $E33.AX is a premium Sydney Rock Oyster company that recently IPO’d. Substantive performance rights for management with a colourful history will likely drive a debt-fueled acquisition binge and short term shareholder returns.
Let’s take a deep dive. 👇
1. Investment thesis: Special situation.
✅Fast top-line growth driven by acquisitions.
✅Strong market conditions.
🚩Performance incentives for EBIT and share price growth.
🚩Debt financed.
🚩History of poor management.
2. East 33 farms native Sydney Rock Oysters – a premium product.
Vertically integrated, they have an export approved facility, export certificate, 195ha of farming licenses, and a nursery.
Costa Group Holdings $CGC $CGC.AX is Australia’s largest grower, packer and marketer of fresh fruit and vegetables. If you like your berries, mushrooms, tomatoes, avocados and citrus, maybe you’ll like the taste of Costa Group.
Let’s take a deep dive. 👇
1. Investment thesis:
✅Stalwart.
✅Market leading position in multiple growing consumer staples lines.
✅International expansion.
✅Generating decent operating free cash flow.
✅Trading at 52 week lows.
🚩CAPEX requirements
🚩Margins & growth rates.
2. Costa’s has grown over the years by modernising fruit and veg growing – bringing new varieties, 52-week availability to supermarkets, economies of scale, and locations near to major urban centres.