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Feb 12 • 8 tweets • 4 min read
Oil is approaching $100 (!) as tensions between Ukraine & Russia heightens concern about tight global supplies 📈🛢️

The US said it thinks Russia could take military action against Ukraine as early as next week. Russia has denied it plans to invade

#OOTT

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
As tensions escalate, President Joe Biden and Putin will speak on Saturday, according to U.S. and Russian officials. The call will take place Saturday morning

Here is a preview of those discussions:

Higher oil prices are bound to boost LNG import costs for utilities and increase electricity rates💰

Most long-term LNG contracts are linked to crude

With Brent at $95/bbl, that means an LNG cargo is roughly $11-12/mmbtu. While that’s cheaper than spot LNG, it’s still pricey
To be sure...

“Our view is that we do not believe he has made any kind of final decision, or we don’t know that he has made any final decision,” said US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
👀

UPDATE: US President Biden tried to send Putin an ultimatum about the consequences of a Ukraine invasion in a conversation that left both sides at an impasse

The Russian leader accused US of failing to provide security assurances he needs to back down

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Crude oil futures extended its rally in early Asian trading on Monday to a fresh seven-year high on Ukraine-Russia tension 🛢️🛢️🛢️

#OOTT Image
UPDATE: Crude oil futures surge above $96 a barrel, the highest level in seven years

Ukraine and Russia tension has boosted concern about tight global supplies

#OOTT Image

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More from @SStapczynski

Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 14
European natural gas prices surge as tension over Ukraine stokes supply concerns 📈📈

Dutch TTF futures jump as much as 14%

The US said Russia may attack Ukraine as soon as this week. Russia (Europe's top gas supplier) has denied it plans to invade

bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
An escalation risks worsening Europe’s energy crunch

Russia is Europe’s top source of natural gas, with about a third of its exports flowing through Ukraine

And Europe’s storage facilities are already running low, with prices four times higher than normal for this time of year Image
Russia is also a major supplier of oil, and the tension is boosting crude prices 🛢️

Read 4 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 9
Japan solidified a plan to divert LNG to Europe on Ukraine tension, NHK says 🇯🇵

🚢 Japan to seek cooperation from its firms that have stakes in LNG export plants (after ensuring enough domestic supply)
🚢 Still determining volume/timing

H/T @shoko_oda

www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2022…
US officials asked Asian countries to ship their natural gas to Europe as the region grapples with a shortage

There are concerns that Europe may run short of energy should Russia invade Ukraine, an attack Putin has repeatedly denied he’s planning

While it’s still unlikely that Russia will cut supplies to Europe, its biggest customer, the continent would require far more than diverted LNG cargoes from Japan to make up the loss

Russia exported more than 1 and a half times Japan’s LNG imports to Europe and Turkey last year
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 8
The latest US LNG export terminal is preparing to load its first cargo 🇺🇸

🚢The Yiannis vessel arrived at Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass plant in Louisiana
🚢Facility began producing LNG last month, which will cement the US as the world's top exporter

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Great reporting from @SergioChapa on this. He actually went to the LNG plant to take pictures of the vessel and confirm its arrival
Calcasieu Pass holds long-term supply deals with nine international buyers but will be able to sell cargoes made during its months-long startup process on the spot market

Those cargoes will most likely be sold to ease an unprecedented energy crisis in Europe
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 5
Qatar is upset that Japan isn’t renewing its LNG contracts
🇶🇦💥🇯🇵

🥊 “You’ll get no sympathy from us the next time you need LNG,” a Qatar official said to Japan in Dec
🥊 Jera let a giant 25-year contract with Qatar lapse last year

Great Nikkei report

nikkei.com/article/DGXZQO…
Qatar became the world’s top LNG supplier thanks largely to Japan

The first Qatar shipment to Japan was delivered to Chubu Electric (one of the owners of Jera) in 1997

But now Japan wants to diversify supply, and requires flexible contracts. That means lower volumes from Qatar
When the Fukushima nuclear plant suffered a meltdown in 2011, Qatar sent more LNG to Japan to make sure it had enough fuel to keep the lights on

Qatar may not be so willing to help next time

“I don’t even want to go to Tokyo,” where Jera’s HQ is located, said the Qatar official
Read 7 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 4
A new U.S. LNG export facility just started production, which will help cement the nation as the world's top exporter of the fuel 🇺🇸🎆🎉

Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass facility in Louisiana produced its first LNG on Jan. 19, according to a FERC filing posted today
The US has been the world's top exporter of the fuel for the last two months as projects ramp-up output and Europe's energy crisis boosts overseas demand

Worth noting: Calcasieu Pass now holds the record for fastest construction of a large greenfield LNG export project

The plant's modular approach to construction has allowed it to move ahead of schedule despite the pandemic and multiple strong hurricanes

Read 6 tweets
Stephen Stapczynski Profile picture
Feb 1
The US was the world's top exporter of liquefied natural gas for the second month in a row 🇺🇸

US LNG exports hit a record 7.3 million tons in January as Sabine Pass started a new unit. Strong European demand aided output

Via @SergioChapa

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
New export projects will continue to ramp up production this year, cementing the US as the world's top LNG exporter through much of this decade
Out of the 101 U.S. LNG export cargoes in January, more than a third arrived at European ports, while five went to Latin American destinations and the rest remain in transit, shipping data compiled by Bloomberg shows

Gas-starved Europe has become a top destination for US LNG
Read 4 tweets

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