Heavy rain over northern parts of NZ now looks unlikely. This animation shows model predictions (ECMWF model) of rain fall from 6pm last night NZ time through to Monday 6pm.
In this 24 hour @Metservice rain radar animation - from 4pm Saturday through to 4am this morning, a lot of this rain has already fallen. The forecast indicates it will continue to move northwards, but it appears to be weakening.
This PWAT model forecast (also from ECMWF) shows what remains of the atmospheric moisture over NZ from 6pm Saturday through to Sunday at midnight NZT.
It does not look overly concerning, and again much of the rainfall which can be inferred from this has already fallen now.
From the look of things NZ has gotten off fairly lightly from #DOVI in the end. The worst damage appears to be slips which have closed a lengthy part of SH1 north of Christchurch.
But it is possibly a good reminder of the changing climate and the threats it poses.
This image shows a closer up satellite view of the flow of moisture laden air over NZ. The Buller Region and North Canterbury appear to have received the most rain. And Taranaki appears to have also gotten off better than forecast - but it will also receive the final burst today.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Yet another Indian Ocean Tropical Storm, #Dumako is forecast to make landfall in Madagascar in the next 24 hours.
And at around the same time models suggest a more dangerous Tropical Cyclone may form following closely behind.
#Dumako is a relatively minor storm and is forecast to weaken on its approach but as you can see here, simulations are pointing to a more dangerous storm following closely in Dumako's wake.
At this stage this formation event is just a possibility, but if it does take place landfall will follow fairly quickly afterwards, and at the moment its track over Madagascar looks very similar to that of #Batsirai which killed over 100 people and destroyed around 100,000 homes.
This article appears to be a poor translation from another language, possibly Amharic, and concerns EU and other efforts seeking to have the terrorist designations lifted from TPLF and OLA / Shene.
I have deleted this earlier tweet now as it is causing confusion.
Though I do think the effort by the EU and AU Envoys, probably supported by the UN and US is counterproductive at this time.
The pressure from international actors, Govts and NGOs like the @CrisisGroup on the GoE to remove these terrorist delegations had been on for a long time.
And underlying the calls is a subtext that the designations are illegitimate and/or harmful to the peace making efforts.
He said no convoys entered Tigray since the 16th. Be did not say that TPLF caused that conflict by invading Afar at that time - which is the cause - which anyone with access to Twitter could quickly determine for themselves.
He noted that aid has not got in for nearly 2 months due to this conflict.
This UN briefing is very disappointing. Sadly the UN DSG @AminaJMohammed appears to have not been well briefed or is resistant to the truth about the war in Ethiopia.
And the UN Press Corps similarly appear to be clueless about the nature of the war since July.
There will be a transcript of this available soon and I will make my concerns clear.
It is understandable that the UN DSG is being diplomatic, as that is her job. But this comes over as papering over a festering sore. Not just in Ethiopia, but in the UN itself.
One factual point. The war continues to prevent aid reaching Tigray not because of “hostilities between two regions” but because at the same time that the Tigray’s TPLF leadership announced a withdrawal, they attacked Afar, on December 16, closing the corridor.
Tropical Cyclone #Dovi#CycloneDovi has an amazing satellite presentation this morning. This is consistent with the latest JTWC forecasts indicating the cyclone strengthening rapidly over the next 24 hours.
12 hour satellite animation of Tropical Cyclone Dovi up to 9.20 am this morning.
Quoted thread contains latest updated information on the cyclones track, intensity and impact.
A @UN_Spokesperson hosted briefing today from @WFP East Africa coordinator Michael Dunford about food insecurity, drought and conflict caused, in the Horn of Africa. media.un.org/en/asset/k16/k…
@UN_Spokesperson@WFP Dunford is seeking funding urgently to scale up operations in Kenya, Somalia and Southern Ethiopia. He answers questions on Afar and confirms the last convoy into Tigray was on 16th December, the day the TPLF offensive against Afar began.
@UN_Spokesperson@WFP The @WFP's Dunford does not however attribute the TPLF commencing this offensive - which remains underway - as the cause of the restrictions on access to Tigray.