1.The Anatomy of a Bear Market: Yesterday, someone asked me as to how could this be a Bear Market, when Nifty is just 4 % off its ATHs. Remember All Bear Markets start from ATHs & All Bull Markets start from ATLs. Let's examine data to come to some probable conclusions.
2.The TOP 10 stocks in Nifty have a combined weightage of 60 %. Reliance which has a weightage of 10.5 % topped out in Oct'21. Recent Jan highs did not cross the Nov 21 secondary high.
3. HDFC,HDFC Bank, Kotak,ITC & HUL which are part of the TOP 10 in terms of weightage on Nifty are trading below February 2021 Highs.
4. Many popular stocks in Autos ( 4/2 wheelers),Steel, Pharma, Chemicals, PSE etc sectors are trading more than 20 % off their ATHs seen in 2021.
5. Platform stocks, esp Zomato which was the most popular are trading significantly below the opening day lows. Similar is the case with Nykaa, PayTM,Cartrade, Policy Bazaar etc etc. The list goes on & on.
6.Great results are quickly discounted by the market. Infy fell 290 points with regular gaps down behaving like a penny stock move. HDFC wiped off all the euphoria of the good trades of yesterday.
7. Yet,no one is scared. All the great analysts are asking us to look at Nifty with targets ranging from 19k to 21 k in the next 2 months,while the rest of the market is in tatters.
8. People are hoping that Govt will hold the priceline on Indices till LIC IPO is through while it has never been the case by any Govt in the past. Market forces are bigger than any Govt & the Govt knows it very well.
9. Nifty has had six 1000+ point moves since Oct '21 & 850-900 points in 2 more cases.These moves both UP & DOWN have come after a multi year Bull. These kinds of moves are characteristic of early stages of Bear Markets in the past.
10.Finally, when I suggest that there is a probability of a 20-30 % drop (14880-13K) in the Indices the trolls come out and say:"It's impossible". 14.8k was seen in May '21 & 13k was seen in Dec '20. Not that far.Please decide for yourself where are we. Thanks for Reading .
1. Old thoughts rehashed : Fundamentally, In my experience since 1991 , every Peak of Bull Market, barring 1992, is accompanied by the best of Corporate Results, Fund flows, Govt policies etc, yet when the last bear meets the last bull then the market reverses.
2.Have been pointing out that the market has cyclical pattern , have also pointed out that the recent rise was a BULL TRAP.
@Jai_hyderabad@vka27 . A thread on Health & Sport. "If I can do it, anyone can do it ". Just like the Stock Markets. Running a Marathon requires the same kind of skill sets as Investing in the Stock Market. Here I am just describing my Running Experience (1/n)
2. In early 2015, when I was around 54 years, the running bug bit me when I saw a friend of mine running on the Marina Beach. He introduced me to Marina Minnals one of the many running groups which are based out of Chennai.
3. In College I was into Sports, mainly short sprints having represented college in various Inter-Collegiate Meets, but anything above 400 m was Hell for me. In 2015 my Running group friends helped me to navigate Hell.
1.“The Dog that Didn’t Bark”
Gregory: “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”
Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.”
Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.”
Holmes: “That was the curious incident.”
2.Since 2008, when FED started its QE there was a fear that the wall of Liquidity would lead to very high Inflation, bordering on Hyperinflation.
However, that did not happen flummoxed the best of the minds.
3. In the last one year due to COVID the concept of “HELICOPTER MONEY’ which was touted by Bernanke in the early 2000’s as one solution to take care of low growth. So how is Helicopter Money different from Quantitative Easing?.
1. MY BIGGEST REGRET : Recently on a CH session, a guy asked me whether I regretted my decision to accumulate Dec Put options in end July when Nifty was around 16k. My reply : I never regret my actions made after a great amount of study so long as only I lose money.
2. Regret happens when others take my advice & lose money or don't make money. However in the past have regretted since others took my advice & lost an opportunity.
3. July 2013. Had identified a stock after a great deal of Research, which then was the most hated. Had traded a long time b/w Rs.21-24 & rapidly fell to Rs.18 when it caught my attention. Immediately alerted everyone I knew that it was a bargain for LT. Most believed me & acted.
1. ONE LONE VOICE ...... Q: If a tree falls in a forest, and there’s no one around to hear it, does it make a sound?🙄 Another "rant" in 10 parts.
2. Yesterday, I ranted through 25 Tweets on the current market conditions. Going by the response, the above question assumes relevance. Adding another edition today in the fond hope that some of you may find meaning in what I tried/trying to convey.
3.Had made my observations of the market here on WhatsApp & CH discussions that while its futile to "Catch a top" in terms of Numbers, it may be still a good idea to "time" the market in terms of ... well "Time"