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SAINIK Profile picture
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Feb 6 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
1. Will touch upon a few data points today's CH session. Here are some of them. US core inflation rate
2. US CPI over time
3. Germany's 10Y yield curve
4. US 2Y yield curve
5. US 10 Y yield curve
6. Brent
7. India's 10 Y yield curve
8. DXY
9. USD-INR
10. @threadreaderapp "unroll"

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More from @sainik636

SAINIK Profile picture
Feb 7
1.Calm before the storm?:Way ahead for the markets. Excerpts of CH disc yesterday. Eerie calm in the market.All strategists looking for New Highs,based on Govt policies,Corporate Results,Low inflation, Retail/MF fund flows, Sentiment etc. My take:Are we in the "Eye of the Storm"
2. At the peak of every Bull Market except 1992, all the above factors were present. In 1994, Pvt Sector MFs & FIIs having just entered the market, Budget being very good, Record Corp results & sentiment very high, no clouds on the Horizon.
3. 2000 & 2008 too had the same set of positive reinforcements. To some extent even in 2010 & 2015 it was the same scenario. Yet all of them topped out on LIQUIDITY being withdrawn overtly & covertly.
Read 15 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Feb 3
1.The Anatomy of a Bear Market: Yesterday, someone asked me as to how could this be a Bear Market, when Nifty is just 4 % off its ATHs. Remember All Bear Markets start from ATHs & All Bull Markets start from ATLs. Let's examine data to come to some probable conclusions.
2.The TOP 10 stocks in Nifty have a combined weightage of 60 %. Reliance which has a weightage of 10.5 % topped out in Oct'21. Recent Jan highs did not cross the Nov 21 secondary high.
3. HDFC,HDFC Bank, Kotak,ITC & HUL which are part of the TOP 10 in terms of weightage on Nifty are trading below February 2021 Highs.
Read 12 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Jan 31
1. Old thoughts rehashed : Fundamentally, In my experience since 1991 , every Peak of Bull Market, barring 1992, is accompanied by the best of Corporate Results, Fund flows, Govt policies etc, yet when the last bear meets the last bull then the market reverses.
2.Have been pointing out that the market has cyclical pattern , have also pointed out that the recent rise was a BULL TRAP.
3. Where are we ?
Read 13 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Sep 12, 2021
@Jai_hyderabad @vka27 . A thread on Health & Sport. "If I can do it, anyone can do it ". Just like the Stock Markets. Running a Marathon requires the same kind of skill sets as Investing in the Stock Market. Here I am just describing my Running Experience (1/n)
2. In early 2015, when I was around 54 years, the running bug bit me when I saw a friend of mine running on the Marina Beach. He introduced me to Marina Minnals one of the many running groups which are based out of Chennai.
3. In College I was into Sports, mainly short sprints having represented college in various Inter-Collegiate Meets, but anything above 400 m was Hell for me. In 2015 my Running group friends helped me to navigate Hell.
Read 12 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Sep 6, 2021
1.“The Dog that Didn’t Bark”
Gregory: “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”
Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.”
Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.”
Holmes: “That was the curious incident.”
2.Since 2008, when FED started its QE there was a fear that the wall of Liquidity would lead to very high Inflation, bordering on Hyperinflation.
However, that did not happen flummoxed the best of the minds.
3. In the last one year due to COVID the concept of “HELICOPTER MONEY’ which was touted by Bernanke in the early 2000’s as one solution to take care of low growth. So how is Helicopter Money different from Quantitative Easing?.
Read 21 tweets
SAINIK Profile picture
Sep 5, 2021
1. MY BIGGEST REGRET : Recently on a CH session, a guy asked me whether I regretted my decision to accumulate Dec Put options in end July when Nifty was around 16k. My reply : I never regret my actions made after a great amount of study so long as only I lose money.
2. Regret happens when others take my advice & lose money or don't make money. However in the past have regretted since others took my advice & lost an opportunity.
3. July 2013. Had identified a stock after a great deal of Research, which then was the most hated. Had traded a long time b/w Rs.21-24 & rapidly fell to Rs.18 when it caught my attention. Immediately alerted everyone I knew that it was a bargain for LT. Most believed me & acted.
Read 11 tweets

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