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Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
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Feb 13 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Ça ne fait même aucun doute. D'après les papiers que j'ai vu passer, le fait d'être immunodéprimé augmente le risque d'un facteur de 2 ou 3, donc concrètement beaucoup de ces gens ne risquent pas grand-chose et ils s'empêchent de vivre à cause de l'hystérie zéro-covidiste.
Par exemple, ce papier dont a parlé @BallouxFrancois il y a quelques jours a trouvé que le fait d'être immunodéficient n'était pas associé à un risque de forme grave plus important chez les enfants. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
En réalité, c'est sans doute un facteur de risque, mais le taux de base est si faible chez les enfants que cette étude n'avait probablement pas une puissance statistique suffisante pour détecter l'effet même s'il existe.
Même chez les adultes, sauf cas très particuliers et personnes âgés, ça ne transforme pas le COVID-19 en sentence de mort. En effet, 2 à 3 fois plus risqué ou même 4 à 5 fois plus risqué qu'un truc pas du tout risqué, ça reste très peu risqué 🤷‍♂️
Tous les débiles qui nous bassinent avec les immunodéprimés et voudraient qu'on reste enfermés jusqu'à la fin des temps pour les protéger commettent juste le sophisme du taux de base et à cause d'eux plein de gens se privent de vie sociale sans raison...

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Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Feb 10
I think people who find that weird just don’t appreciate how much sway authority has over midwits. They really don’t care how nonsensical the argument is: as long as they consider the person or institution making it authoritative on the topic, they will accept the conclusion.
I already knew that before, but the pandemic really impressed that on me. Many people simply cannot comprehend that someone with no relevant credentials might be right against someone who they think has them, regardless of how clear it is that they are in fact right.
What’s funny is that, in many cases, the people they consider authoritative on a topic don’t actually have relevant expertise in virtue of their credentials (think about how people trust physicians to opine on epidemic modeling), but it doesn’t matter. What matters is perception.
Read 7 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Feb 3
Here is how Romer reacts to a perfectly reasonable point in response to his latest blog post. In a community that values truth and intellectual integrity, he would immediately lose all credibility after that, but instead many economists are *praising* him for it. ImageImageImage
The saddest thing about this is not even what it reveals about the state of economics, which is far from the worst field in that respect, it's how willing Romer and so many others are to debase themselves by jettisoning truth and intellectual honesty for ideological reasons.
Indeed, this isn't just intellectual corruption, it's *moral* corruption. Romer knows perfectly well that it's a good point, but he is a coward and a fraud, so he prefers to side-step the issue and reply with abuse to flatter the prevailing opinion among his peers.
Read 5 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Feb 3
Currently being further radicalized against science by economists gushing over this post, and pretending that these graphs convincingly show a strong effect of personal insecurity on black patenting, instead of making it clear that it's probably just noise. ImageImage
I don't even get what the story is supposed to be here: the graph shows that black patenting was highest when lynching against blacks was highest and stayed low after lynching violence receded, so what the fuck do people think it shows?
Sure, you can tell a story in which once anti-black violence has peaked around 1900, it had a large effect on black patenting that persisted long after lynching became much rarer, but this hardly seems to be the most obvious interpretation of the data.
Read 15 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Jan 29
Why do I have the distinct impression that most of what therapists do is tell their patients that their insane worldview is not in fact insane?
I was kind of joking but also kind of being serious here. In theory, it could be very useful to see a therapist because he could help you see that your perception of the world is wrong, which can be hard for your friends and loved ones to do because it puts them in a hard spot.
But everyone I'm close to who is seeing a therapist seems to have their worldview validated by him/her, even though I personally think the worldview in question is deeply mistaken and a big part of why they are miserable, so that doesn't seem very good.
Read 9 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Jan 28
As I have argued before (cspicenter.org/blog/waronscie…), this kind of chart is totally fake, because the methods used to estimate the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2's variants are unreliable, but it's worth pointing out that basically everything else on that chart is fake. 1/n
We don't really know what the basic reproduction number of a virus is, and in fact the question doesn't even make sense, because the basic reproduction number of a virus is not an intrinsic property but depends on the context such as population density, culture, etc. 2/n
For instance, take measles, which is often presented as the most transmissible infectious disease with a R0 of 15 as in the chart above. But where does that number come from? 3/n
Read 13 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Jan 25
I agree that, since Ukraine's accession to NATO is not imminent, it wouldn't make sense for Russia to start a war over it now. 1/n
But the fact is that Russia has *not* started a war over it yet and this line of reasoning is precisely what makes me think that it won't and that it just wants the US to believe that it *might* to force Washington to take its security concerns seriously. 2/n
Insofar as this has forced the US to the negotiation table to discuss those concerns for the first time in a very long time, you could say that it has worked, but what is unclear to me is what concrete advantages Russia is expecting from the process. 3/n
Read 7 tweets

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