Re-reading parts of “A Little War That Shook the World” — about the Russia-Georgia war in 2008 — and slightly depressed by how very now this section sounds if you swap out Georgia for Ukraine /1
But the frequency with which we forget that the point of the post Cold War security order is “to protect small states from the predatory behavior of more powerful ones” — we could all do with a refresher on this point /2
Also this, especially the second paragraph. Ukraine is not a “proxy war” — but we are a party to the conflict because of Russian objectives, and stepping back and pretending it isn’t our fight doubly misses the point /3
Sometimes I really miss Ron Asmus, and his optimism /4
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What’s so remarkable is that in places like the US where dark money can legally pour into elections — this could describe almost every PAC that is well organized /2
Worthy emphasizing:
“The perpetrators of foreign interference carefully hide their true motivations. But that does not mean politicians are powerless to protect themselves.” /3
The century where everybody took turns negotiating away the futures of the people living between Russia and Germany/W Europe didn’t go so hot.
Don’t be one of the people trying to reboot it into “pragmatism” when it is monstrous.
If you argue for equal rights and freedoms and opportunities for every American, you should be able to support the same for other in other nations fighting for it.
Literally fighting for it — and to protect us and what we have, over here across this big safe ocean.
If you want to know why Ukraine has earned the right to seek to be in NATO and to have that door open when they come — study the Holodomor, when Stalin starved Ukraine as a tool of internal control, and millions died.
Before Russia invaded Georgia, the Kremlin found a lot of ways to seed the narrative that the war was because Saakashvili was annoying & didn’t listen to the West.
The 2022 reboot is that the war is because Zelensky is annoying & doesn’t listen.
The war is because of Russia. /1
A lot of effort is being made to create division — or the perception of division that will become real division — between the Ukrainian leadership and the allies it needs now, especially in the White House. /2
I’m sure there’s lots to say about Zelensky’s ZFG style
But he has been clear about what Ukraine needs
None of this is about him
It is about what the Kremlin sees as an opportunity to get this White House to pressure Zelensky to make the concessions Russia needs in Ukraine /3
Broad range of views on what could happen next with Russia & what the US must do represented in @POLITICOMag, including from Lilia Shevtsova, Fiona Hill, @EvelynNFarkas, @steven_pifer, and more. Some of my thoughts included in this mix: /1
The reality facing the Estonians is the same one the Ukrainians have to face.
Don’t dismiss the reality facing Ukrainians. What they are prepared to do. What they have already had to do these past 8 years. And what they means about what comes next.
All we can really know: if Russia pushes the war outside its current boundaries to the scale their mobilization anticipates (maybe), a lot of people—soldier and civilian, Ukrainian and Russian—will die, and their destruction will bring catastrophic suffering.
Will try to post videos later, but takeaways from today’s panels:
-N. Europeans (incl Balts) have most clarity on what is at stake, what to do
- 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 still hoping the voyage has a different destination
-Both sides want to see more US leadership
-We need to pick the right side /1
To me, it’s clear the right side is w/ the frontline allies, who everyday ask their citizens to prepare to sacrifice for nat’l defense
Everything else is a hat-tip to the Kremlin’s “sphere of influence” argument, and I refuse to condemn any peoples to a repeat of that history /2
It hurts my head that German officials can reference “burdens of history” as a reason for non-action against Russia when non-action can also be this condemnation to darkness.
The burden of all our histories is to defend the values that have given us our prosperous, safe lives /3