Garry Kasparov Profile picture
Feb 14 6 tweets 1 min read
If Ukraine or NATO promise that Ukraine won’t join and Putin doesn’t invade again, he wouldn’t have anyway. The urge to find some way to compromise, a normal human instinct, isn’t something dictators possess. Conceding to a bully only encourages him.
Appeasers from Tucker and Gabbard to UK Labour, to French far right and left to Orban say—some as Putin sycophants, some in good faith stupidity—that Putin cares about NATO expansion when it has never been a factor in his 8-yr war on Ukraine and Europe.
It’s pathetic and self-destructive to run around to find some way to appease Putin when the only thing that changes his behavior is deterrence based targeting his money and his grip on power. Lavishing attention and groveling about NATO only emboldens him.
Stop trying to meet evil halfway. This isn’t a normal political negotiation with sincere concerns or saving face. It’s a brutal dictator waging war on innocent people. It’s not only wrong to give an inch, it’s a doomed policy. Deterrence is based on strength alone.
Add that Putin’s promises are worth nothing. Like any dictator, he will do what he likes as soon as he thinks he can get away with it, never less, never more. Making voluntary concessions only convinces him you’re too weak to stop him, or you would.
This desperation to give something to Putin so he won't attack again is a victim mentality, the attitude of helpless prey toward a predator. Not only does this fail, but the West holds every advantage except the will to use them.

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More from @Kasparov63

Feb 10
Based on signals, I'm worried Putin's attack may come out of Donbas in the next couple of days. Whenever it comes, I expect it to be major but small enough for Western appeasers to say it doesn't qualify as the invasion they warned him against.
Putin is good at reading his opponents and taking the measure of their cowardice. He cannot afford to lose a major confrontation, so he advances on the edges so they can save face while doing nothing.
The greatest danger of not standing up against small provocations, as I've always warned, is that eventually many successes lead to overconfidence and the dictator losing that sense of danger and overstepping into a major conflict.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 3
Part of the usual pattern of aggression and appeasement. "Look what I can do if you don't give me what I want" and tossing toys out of the pram is annoying, but it gets worse if you actually give them what they want. They get stronger and more confident.
We will see more cyberattacks, disinfo campaigns and other hybrid war assaults as Putin demands concessions and attention. Escalation usually works for him because his opponents fold.
The appeasement cycle continues until the dictator oversteps, intoxicated by years of impunity and increasingly desperate at home. That's how small concessions lead to big wars. I detailed this historical process in 2015: thedailybeast.com/springtime-for…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 24
I'm glad to discuss Putin's latest aggression and how to stop him. But I said it all in my 2015 book Winter Is Coming. Even by then I was furious the West had done so little. Tragically, it's still valid. publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/garry-k…
I addressed Putin's war on Ukraine as a test for the US and the rest of the free world. As I've been saying since 2007, the longer you wait to deter a dictator, the higher the eventual price. Now a major war is looming.
Instead of running around in a panic at every Putin move, a strategic plan of deterrence by raising the costs of aggression and reducing his leverage should have been implemented in 2008 at the latest, when he invaded Georgia. The mask was off.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 11
We know what they decided, sealing Russia's slide into dictatorship. Even after Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014, even now in 2022 with Germany pressing for Nord Stream 2, with the White House's support. Putin's gas and cash over everything.
The only proof you need that the myth of Russian humiliation by the West is just scapegoating lies is how much money they poured into Putin's pockets. All while welcoming him at the G7, all smiles. Even after he invaded Georgia in 2008.
Putin had every opportunity to improve relations with the free world but he chose conflict abroad and repression at home to solidify personal power, like every dictator. He's been in charge for 21 years; his track record isn't a mystery. Murder, invasion, oppression.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 10
My hit with @SRuhle this morning on these US-Russia meetings, as hostage negotiations. It's completely backwards. The free world should be making the demands of the terrorist Putin, invader Putin. msnbc.com/stephanie-ruhl…
The White House said they have prepared an “overwhelming response” if Putin further invades Ukraine. Why wait? He’s already there, kick him out. He'll keep doing this whenever he needs a distraction otherwise.
The West still acts like they’re dealing with a normal nation in Russia. But while every country has a mafia, in Russia the mafia has its own country. It’s Godfather Putin and his gang, and their personal interests, not Russia's.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 7
There are terms for "expanding influence" by sending tanks across the border. Ask Hungary, ask the Czechs. Tokayev has gone from being Nazarbayev's pet to being Putin's to try save his own skin. The free world looks on with "deep concern" as usual.
Let's hear from Tony Blair, long on Nazarbayev's payroll, and the rest of the Western appeasers taking lobbyist money from dictatorships. They'll probably be quiet for a while now, but should be dragged into the light.
Now Blinken says he's confused why Tokayev invited Russian troops to take over? It's because he didn't trust his own security forces to murder their protesting countrymen efficiently enough. Putin's won't hesitate. They already have experience in Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets

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