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Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
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Feb 14 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
#Russia: On February 15, the Duma will vote on two bills, both related to the recognition of breakaway territories in Ukraine. If the communist-drafted initiative wins, the decree will go directly to Putin. Otherwise, the United Russia proposal will be considered. In this case⤵️
, the document will be distributed to other institutions, including the MFA, before landing on Putin's desk. The fact that the vote is on February 15 could raise concerns that certain operations on the border and in Donbas could start as early as February 16. As I mentioned⤵️
earlier, Russia is using the argument that increased military capacity would threaten the security of Russian citizens in the breakaway territories of Donbass. This is an argument reminiscent of the narrative surrounding the recognition of Kosovo's independence,⤵️
which was supported by most in the West to prevent possible aggression from Belgrade. One thing is clear: Putin makes everyone guess what's next.
Reuters reported that Russia would be upt to use the mercenaries (including those from the Wagner Group) to fabricate a pretext for an incursion.

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More from @DionisCenusa

Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Feb 16
#Russia_Ukraine: It is not clear what Russia's exact goal is in triggering the issue of recognition of breakaway territories. One explanation may be that Russia is using the "recognition" story to pressure Kyiv to implement the Minsk Agreements. This makes even more sense⤵️
after both Macron and Scholz discussed this with Zelensky. The fact that Putin rejected the idea of ​​recognition so quickly could be the result of an orchestrated move from the Duma side to improve Putin's image as a more pragmatic political actor in the eyes of the West.⤵️
Another intention probably lies in distracting attention or creating more confusion around the military buildup. This last one began to be questioned before the recent appearances of withdrawing some elements of the military buildup. In any case, neither aggression nor⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Jan 2
#France: Paris assumed the presidency of the EU Council. There was a scandal over the use of the EU flag by far-right politicians Le Pen and Zemmur. Here are some useful data on the priorities of the French Presidency of the EU called “Relaunch, power and sense of belonging:⤵️
1) It is guided by three main priorities: a. A more sovereign Europe (better Schengen, better protection of external borders; more capable in terms of defense and security, acting for the stability and prosperity of the neighborhood, etc.); B. A new European growth model⤵️
(combining economic development with climate protection, etc.); C. A humane Europe (responding to the concerns of EU citizens, etc.); 2) The French presidency is complementary to that of the Czech Republic and Sweden, with which it forms the presidency of the “Trio” until⤵️
Read 7 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 29, 2021
#Belarus: Lukashenko made a number of disturbing statements that encompass flagrant disinformation on a large scale, but I want to underline some of them: 1) He acknowledged that in the event of a military conflict on the Ukraine-Russia border, Belarus will fight on the⤵️
Russian side ; 2) Next, he instructed Defense Minister Hrenov to develop action plans to mobilize the army ensuring that this is necessary to counter threats on both the western and southern borders (NATO members and Ukraine); 3) Furthermore, Lukashenko directed at “them”⤵️
(West/Poland) the accusations of committing homicides involving migrants, whose corpses would be dumped on the territory of Belarus (continued demonization of the EU / West); 4) As Russia has done previously (via Patrushev’s voice), Lukashenko is twisting the narrative on⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 27, 2021
#EaP: The week ends with some positive developments for the region: 1) Armenia and Azerbaijan sign the third trilateral declaration under the auspices of Putin, whose main highlight is the objective of establishing a bilateral committee for demarcation;⤵️
2) The “migration crisis” on the border between Poland and Belarus has diminished in tension and proportion, while the EU finalized the legal ground for the fifth package of sanctions against Belarus on people smuggling; ⤵️
3) Moldova managed to change the budget law for ~ $75 million of debt with Gazprom, avoiding the gas cut by the latter;⤵️
Read 4 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 27, 2021
#Armenia_Azerbaijan_Russia: My takeaways on on the Pashinyan-Alyiev-Putin meeting and the new declaration in Moscow (November 26, 2021): 1) Both Yerevan and Baku underlined the positive role of the Russian peacekeeping mission in stabilizing the region and normalizing the⤵️
bilateral relations; 2) They are open to initiating delineation and demarcation procedures (within a special technical bilateral committee), allowing Russia to assist in that when necessary; 3) Armenia calls on Moscow to help reducing tensions on the borders with Azerbaijan⤵️
beyond Nagorno-Karabakh topic; 4) All parties are interested in unblocking interstate transportation and economic communication ties; 5) Unlike the situation on the bilateral borders, Armenia insists on solving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by broadcasting the OSCE Minsk Group,⤵️
Read 5 tweets
Dionis Cenusa Profile picture
Nov 1, 2021
#Moldova_Russia: The protocol of the extended contract with Gazprom was published today. Additionally, Moldovan Minister of Infrastructure Spânu revealed some details about the gas contract. Here is my take on the main details of the contract and the protocol (THREAD/17): ⤵️
1) Although the contract was extended for 5 years, the volumes actually reserved are only for one year (November 2021-October 2022). 2) Only the contract includes the exact price formula. Moldova's energy regulator (ANRE) will receive and approve the contract these days. ⤵️
3) Due to the commercial secret clause, it will not be made public. Nonetheless, the price formula has been released to the public by Russian sources (price formed on the basis of calculations of 70% to 30% of oil & gas spot market prices depending on the warm & cold quarters).⤵️
Read 18 tweets

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