Risk stratification is based on the Mayo 20-2-20 system.
High risk is any 2 factors abnormal. These patients had 90% reduction in risk of end organ damage in the two RCTs of Len/Rd vs Observation. nature.com/articles/s4140…
Better than our algorithm is to enroll in a clinical trial. The current national RCT is comparing preventive approach with Rd to myeloma like treatment DRd. OS is the endpoint. @eaonc@nsc_natalie@mtmdphd
Some people have asked me whether they can watch closely instead of treating high risk SMM. That's what we thought. We watched patients monthly. But we failed to prevent end organ damage: >90% reduction in end organ damage with Len compared to observation in our RCTs.
Unless you plan to see your patients every day you won't be able to prevent end organ damage in high risk smoldering myeloma in time.
And some if it will not be reversible.
When I have reviewed 1000s of medical records of smoldering myeloma patients being watched I always saw the confidence of the treating physician that all is well. Until it was not.
I don't make recommendations lightly without taking into account all possible pros and cons and factors. And I feel strongly that newly diagnosed patients with high risk smoldering myeloma should be offered early therapy.
The three of us, and our colleagues @myelomaMD@nsc_natalie and others are leading multiple trials including RCTs in smoldering myeloma. It's not easy to run these trials. It's not easy to design and get these approved and accrued.
We will continue to report our findings.
2 years and stop. That what we recommend in the paper. And that's what we are doing in the ongoing ECOG phase III.
Adding my response to a question I had at ASH:
If you say "Ill watch the patient carefully, and Ill catch progression before it happens," that experiment was done and it failed. In 2 RCTs. In the US and Spain.
Patients should not be placed at risk of end organ damage.
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1/ Risk stratification: This is important both for counseling patients and to decide on treatment options. The more high risk factors, the higher the risk.
2/ Initial therapy. The 3 main choices are VRd, DRd, and Dara-VRd.
I prefer VRd. But the other options are reasonable. Transplant eligible patients need 3-4 cycles, then stem cell collection.
3/ Initial Therapy. For patients not eligible for transplant, results with DRd are outstanding. But it is more expensive and requires prolonged use of a triplet.
China, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Japan, Australia, et al.
How did they do it? Did they have better experts or expertise? Did they implement preventive measures faster? Was the population more receptive. All of the above? More?
Need in depth study. And with humility and attention to detail.
So we learn and don't repeat mistakes. Perhaps nothing is fixable. But it's worth knowing what the reasons are.
Most of them kept deaths low by keeping cases low. Even when cases climbed with omicron it was in a vaccinated population. So they had accomplished what they needed to accomplish.
That means it's not a question of obesity rates or diabetes or age distribution.
The study used data from 1327 patients to develop the risk stratification model. The model was then validated in 502 patients enrolled in the MMRF CoMMpass study.
Stage migration from RISS and ISS shown below.
There are a lot of risk stratification models. We focus the widest applicability worldwide using markers that are clinically available in most places.
The risk stratification and hazard ratios are valuable for counseling.
Having spoken to many experts and organizations including experts from Costco and @AARP it was clear that even if the intent is there, providing low cost drugs in our system is extraordinarily difficult.
So I'm glad someone is taking the initiative.
The fact that your copay with insurance can be higher than paying out of pocket at the pharmacy tells you how broken the system is, how much the entire supply chain except the patient benefits from the current system.
One thing that's clear watching the pandemic for the last 2 years is that the only way to truly contain it was early action. A few countries did it the right way. Saved a lot of lives.
If you didn't do the right thing early on, the task became infinitely harder.
Countries which successfully contained covid early on now face a problem of how long they can realistically sustain their approach.
These countries have vaccinated their public and did all the right things. But Omicron makes it very hard.
Countries which acted late find rising cases the moment preventive measures are relaxed. And whenever a new variant arises. It's disheartening.