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Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
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Feb 15 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This is another good sign after Lavrov's statement yesterday about how he believed there was still a chance to find a diplomatic way forward. I continue to think Russia will not invade, but I guess we'll see.
I'm sure that some people will argue that the Russians are just trying to make us think they are backing down before attacking, but to me this kind of dance really sounds like their trying to sell de-escalation to the Russian public. reuters.com/world/europe/r…
In the interest of full disclosure though, I should tell you that I have $600 on the line that Russia will not invade (a bet I made with @rfitz77 before Russia made public its list of demands on December 17, which really surprised me), so this may just be wishful thinking.
I don't think it's wishful thinking though. Such a statement is very hard to square with the hypothesis that Russia is about to invade.

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More from @phl43

Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Feb 17
Excellent fil sur le fact-checking auquel je souscris globalement et qui rejoint une observation que j'ai souvent faite au sujet du fact-checking, mais toutefois je ne suis pas entièrement d'accord avec l'analyse de @lorisguemart ou du moins je voudrais aller plus loin ⬇️
D'abord, même si je ne dis pas que ça n'a pas joué un rôle, je ne pense pas que le rôle de Facebook dans le financement du fact-checking soit la principale explication de la focalisation sur les réseaux sociaux, ce que @lorisguemart ne dit pas exactement d'ailleurs.
Je pense que fondamentalement cette focalisation sur les conneries qui circulent sur les réseaux sociaux est un phénomène de classe : le journalisme est un milieu socialement et idéologiquement très homogène, ce qui détermine largement le choix des sujets qui sont traités.
Read 16 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Feb 15
One of my hot takes, which comes from reading @RCAFDM's work on the determinants of health care spending, is that socialized medicine is good actually because it's the best way to ration health care and stop people from spending fortunes on it for small marginal returns. Image
I told you it was a hot take 🤷‍♂️
Broke: socialism is great.

Woke: socialism sucks.

Bespoke: socialism is great because it sucks.
Read 4 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Feb 14
This is why prison is good actually and why you should favor long sentences for violent crimes: not because it reforms offenders, but because it incapacitates them.
Locking people up: it works. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10… Image
By the way, the stupidity of Italian lawmakers has been a great provider of natural experiments on the effects of incarceration. Another collective pardon has also been used to support the hypothesis that incarceration had a deterrent effect on crime. journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.108… Image
Read 6 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Feb 13
Ça ne fait même aucun doute. D'après les papiers que j'ai vu passer, le fait d'être immunodéprimé augmente le risque d'un facteur de 2 ou 3, donc concrètement beaucoup de ces gens ne risquent pas grand-chose et ils s'empêchent de vivre à cause de l'hystérie zéro-covidiste.
Par exemple, ce papier dont a parlé @BallouxFrancois il y a quelques jours a trouvé que le fait d'être immunodéficient n'était pas associé à un risque de forme grave plus important chez les enfants. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
En réalité, c'est sans doute un facteur de risque, mais le taux de base est si faible chez les enfants que cette étude n'avait probablement pas une puissance statistique suffisante pour détecter l'effet même s'il existe.
Read 5 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Feb 10
I think people who find that weird just don’t appreciate how much sway authority has over midwits. They really don’t care how nonsensical the argument is: as long as they consider the person or institution making it authoritative on the topic, they will accept the conclusion.
I already knew that before, but the pandemic really impressed that on me. Many people simply cannot comprehend that someone with no relevant credentials might be right against someone who they think has them, regardless of how clear it is that they are in fact right.
What’s funny is that, in many cases, the people they consider authoritative on a topic don’t actually have relevant expertise in virtue of their credentials (think about how people trust physicians to opine on epidemic modeling), but it doesn’t matter. What matters is perception.
Read 7 tweets
Philippe Lemoine Profile picture
Feb 3
Here is how Romer reacts to a perfectly reasonable point in response to his latest blog post. In a community that values truth and intellectual integrity, he would immediately lose all credibility after that, but instead many economists are *praising* him for it. ImageImageImage
The saddest thing about this is not even what it reveals about the state of economics, which is far from the worst field in that respect, it's how willing Romer and so many others are to debase themselves by jettisoning truth and intellectual honesty for ideological reasons.
Indeed, this isn't just intellectual corruption, it's *moral* corruption. Romer knows perfectly well that it's a good point, but he is a coward and a fraud, so he prefers to side-step the issue and reply with abuse to flatter the prevailing opinion among his peers.
Read 5 tweets

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