Surprisingly, the unorthodox approach of the USA to release immediately on the ground assessments of Russian military movements seems to be working! Does anyone have a good handle on this game theory?
Conventionally, one does not reveal what one knows to the adversary. Doing so reveals your information collection capabilities and gives your adversary more information that can be used to your disadvantage.
Revealing information ahead of time is an unexpected tactic that puts Russian forces off balance. The Russian strategy is to use temporary gaps of information to their advantage. They leveraged this in their invasion of Crimea by not making it clear who the 'green men' were.
So by releasing information ahead of the actual event, the USA takes away this advantage. So when they revealed that Russia would stage a fake strike from Ukraine, Russia lost the advantage of momentary ambiguity. They couldn't stage this kind of a ruse.
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