Thread by @Tom_deWaal

1/ The Duma has passed a resolution calling on President Putin to recognize the two Russian-supported “people’s republics” in eastern Ukraine.
There are good reasons to be sceptical that Putin will follow through.
themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/15/rus…

2/ Recall that in March 2008, the Duma passed a similar resolution on Abkhazia and S Ossetia and also called for recognition of Transdniestria. The context was recent Western recognition of Kosovo and the upcomimg Bucharest NATO summit.
rferl.org/a/1079638.html

3/ In the end Russia recognized Abkhazia and S Ossetia in August 2008, after the Five-Day War.
As I’ve argued before, these acts of recognition cost both Georgians and Abkhaz and Ossetia dear, and reaped few long-term strategic benefits for Russia.
carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurop…

4/ It’s well known that Yevgeny Primakov, former prime minister and foreign minister (and a far better strategist than Putin) opposed recognition of the territories. There's a story that Lavrov also called French FM Kouchner to warn him of the news and said he regretted it.

5/ By not recognizing Transdniestria, Moscow maintained leverage in Moldova. It's still a key part of the 5+2 format. Non-recognition keeps Russia in the game in deciding the future of a contested region. carnegieeurope.eu/2018/12/03/tra…

6/ After all, if Transniestria were to be part of Moldova with strong autonomy it could be a pro-Russian region acting as a brake on Moldova’s ambitions to further integrate with the EU. (NATO is not an issue for Moldova remember, as it is not committed to membership).

7/ So most likely scenario is that Putin does not recognize the DNR and LNR. That would kill the Minsk Agreements which are broadly favourable to Russia. (If there is no full-scale war of course. I'm a sceptic that there will be, though I don’t want to sound complacent).

8/ Here is @niktwickin in our book ceps.eu/ceps-publicati…
Moscow would lose more in Ukraine than it would gain in these territories.

9/ A tragedy of Donbas is that neither Moscow nor Kyiv seems to really care about controlling a large, criminalized, ruined region. Its poor and mostly elderly population meanwhile probably just wants peace and good relations with both sides.

10/ Tens of thousands have already left for rest of Ukraine. One consequence of Moscow handing out Russian passports to residents of these territories is that thousands are reportedly taking the opportunity to leave and relocate to Russia, further hollowing out these regions.

11/ Few people understand all the dynamics of the Donbas conflict. As well as @niktwick I want to single out the amazing @kquinnjudge Also read this from Anna Matveeva who has studied these regions deeply.
fhs.brage.unit.no/fhs-xmlui/bits…