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Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
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Feb 15 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Interesting comment - one correction and one remark (short thread)
First the correction. The trade diversion question this article covers is not about new trade barriers created by the NI Protocol but about the fact that the barriers for UK-EU trade are higher than those for NI-EU trade. Image
Because the question the article raises is: did NI trade grow so much because a) it is successful b) it took over GB trade with the EU or c) some of the GB trade is actually now GB->NI->EU trade
The comment: right now we lack the full picture, we‘ll have to wait until we have more data, hoping we will get that data.

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Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 12
Trade stats, Italy edition. The press release is on extra-EU trade. How did Italian extra-UE trade do for 2021?
Exports +12.6% (energy sector +63.9%)
Imports +45.8% (energy sector +115.6%)
So what about the trade between Italy and the UK? /1
The press release lists the countries with which the changes were most pronounced. So let's start with Italian exports
US +32.5%; OPEC +32; Turkey +24.3; Russia +14.2
UK -11.4; ASEAN -7.6; Mercosur -3.8
Italian imports
India +70.2%; Mercosur +61.9; Russia +58.6; OPEC +53.1; ASEAN +52.5; China +51.8
UK -30%
Read 4 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 10
An excellent illustration of what I meant by distortion of our procedures - let me explain (thread)
Review of existing rules and stakeholder engagement in that regard should be a constant feature of the system. People in government working in a specialised area are thus informed by citizens / industry subject to the regulation that e.g. form 425/a makes no sense.
They can then review WHY that form is there and whether it should be maintained.
Read 9 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 9
German trade stats for December 21 are out. Exports +0.9% compared to November 21, +15.6 compared to December 20. But as it's the December figures, let's do the whole year, shall we? (thread)
German exports +14%, imports +17.1% in 2021. /2
German exports to the EU: +17.6
German exports to other countries: +10
German exports to the UK: -2.6 /3
Read 11 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 8
OK. I feel the appointment of JRM as minister for Brexit opportunities deserves a thread. Overall - it is good news, with loads of caveats. Only start yelling at me, please, once you've read the whole thread (thread)
1) Brexit opportunities are THE big thing that is, to some extent, poisoning the debate and has been ever since the referendum campaign.
2) With Brexit, the UK is no longer bound by EU law. It can regulate differently from the EU. Now this can be good where it targets UK specifics better and/or the regulation is superior. It can be bad where the regulation is worse, the divergence as such also comes at a cost.
Read 15 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 6
And the abuse of statistics continues. This report discredits itself even before its release by publishing a 500 bn windfall that is based on what? (short thread) dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
Sophisticated modelling? Daring plans?
No. Calculating what UK exports would be if exports/person in the UK would match Germany's. Image
It's difficult to express where to start with how silly this is. Of course, Germany's access to the internal market stands out - but even if this report were a rejoin advocacy report the comparison would be silly.
Read 4 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 6
Quick resource tweet: 1) House of Commons library research briefings: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research/all-r…
2) German parliament research briefings bundestag.de/analysen (also h/t @schnoogsl newscrawler.eu/others/index_w…)
3) European parliament research by policy area europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/r…
Read 5 tweets

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