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Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
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Feb 9 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
German trade stats for December 21 are out. Exports +0.9% compared to November 21, +15.6 compared to December 20. But as it's the December figures, let's do the whole year, shall we? (thread)
German exports +14%, imports +17.1% in 2021. /2
German exports to the EU: +17.6
German exports to other countries: +10
German exports to the UK: -2.6 /3
German imports from the EU: +16.8
German imports from other countries: 17.5
German imports from the UK: -8.5
Top 3 partners for exports: US (1), China (2), France (3)
Top 3 partners for imports: China (1), Netherlands (2), US (3)
And now the question we are all waiting for: how important is German-UK trade now. In 2020 the UK was No. 5 for German exports, No. 11 for German imports. destatis.de/EN/Themes/Econ…
Sorry, takes a bit, have to compile it myself. For exports: US, China, France, NL, Poland, Italy, Austria, UK. So the UK dropped from 5 to 8.
For imports: China, NL, US, Poland, Italy, France, Belgium, Czech Rep, Switzerland, Austria, Spain, Russia, UK. Thats a drop from 11 to 13.
OK. This is worse than I expected, I confess. Have a good night. I have to write on investment law now. Will do so in a bad mood.
Oh, sorry. Sources. Right: detailed data here: destatis.de/DE/Themen/Wirt…
Press release here: destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pres…

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More from @hhesterm

Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 8
OK. I feel the appointment of JRM as minister for Brexit opportunities deserves a thread. Overall - it is good news, with loads of caveats. Only start yelling at me, please, once you've read the whole thread (thread)
1) Brexit opportunities are THE big thing that is, to some extent, poisoning the debate and has been ever since the referendum campaign.
2) With Brexit, the UK is no longer bound by EU law. It can regulate differently from the EU. Now this can be good where it targets UK specifics better and/or the regulation is superior. It can be bad where the regulation is worse, the divergence as such also comes at a cost.
Read 15 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 6
And the abuse of statistics continues. This report discredits itself even before its release by publishing a 500 bn windfall that is based on what? (short thread) dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
Sophisticated modelling? Daring plans?
No. Calculating what UK exports would be if exports/person in the UK would match Germany's. Image
It's difficult to express where to start with how silly this is. Of course, Germany's access to the internal market stands out - but even if this report were a rejoin advocacy report the comparison would be silly.
Read 4 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 6
Quick resource tweet: 1) House of Commons library research briefings: commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research/all-r…
2) German parliament research briefings bundestag.de/analysen (also h/t @schnoogsl newscrawler.eu/others/index_w…)
3) European parliament research by policy area europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/r…
Read 5 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 5
What astonishes me is that those who felt the need to leave the EU because it was not pragmatic enough have abandoned all pragmatism in favour of 100% ideology. /1
Rejecting all simplifications because they require some form of regulatory alignment - even in areas where it is unlikely the population actually wants to change the rules. /2
And so we will have beef hormone debates, chlorine chicken debates, workers‘ rights debates, environmental standards debate, animal rights debates etc etc etc /3
Read 5 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 5
Might I suggest one of the problems is the incoherence of public attitudes (probably similar in most countries) (short thread)
The attitude towards "immigration" seems to be worse than the attitude towards "allowing schoolkids to come" "allowing Romanian fruit-pickers to work" "allowing foreign butchers to work" "allowing truck drivers from abroad to work" /2
The problem thus is an image problem. The imaginary average immigrant is quite different from the real average immigrant.
Read 4 tweets
Holger Hestermeyer Profile picture
Feb 3
As it‘s getting a bit convoluted: the Protocol as the approach of the two parties to find a special solution for NI provides for two provisions that people are currently referring to quite a bit (short thread)
First of all Art. 16. Art. 16 provides for safeguards under certain conditions, requiring a specific procedure (Annex 7). Art. 16 has not been invoked here (and of course the procedures for invocation have not been followed). Also: Mr. Poots would not be the right person to do so
The WA is a treaty between the UK and the EU, the invocation of Art. 16 is a matter for the UK.
Read 5 tweets

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